Week 5 opens with Tampa Bay still hunting its first win, and the task gets no easier with a trip to Dallas on Thursday night. The Buccaneers will be without Baker Mayfield because of a thumb injury, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is set for his second start after throwing one touchdown and two interceptions in the Week 4 loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas comes in on a different note entirely. The Cowboys just pulled an upset road win over the Houston Texans and got back to .500, keeping themselves in the mix in the NFC East. The 3-1 New York Giants are currently in first place, but they’re also without starting quarterback Jaxson Dart for the rest of the regular season.
That setup has made Dallas a heavy favorite, especially with Tampa Bay sitting near the bottom of the league on offense and turning to a quarterback with very little NFL experience. Still, there are betting angles in this one, and the SI Betting team has spent the week circling a few of them.
One of the clearest takes is on the spread. Iain MacMillan is backing Tampa Bay to cover, and the case starts with how shaky the Cowboys have been on defense.
Dallas ranks 31st in opponent EPA per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA, and last in opponent yards per play while allowing 6.4 yards per snap. Even with a Buccaneers offense that has been ugly and a rookie quarterback under center, that’s a lot of points to trust Dallas with.
MacMillan also points to Tampa Bay’s defense as the reason the number feels too high. The Bucs rank fifth in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate, and they’re giving up only 5.0 yards per snap this season. With that kind of gap on defense, he’s taking the points.
There are also a few player props worth watching on the Dallas side, starting with CeeDee Lamb. He had a monster Week 4 against Houston, catching 17 passes on 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown.
That followed a quiet Week 1, when he had five catches for 44 yards and a score, but over the last three games he’s logged eight, seven and 17 receptions. Prescott has targeted him at least eight times in every game this season, and with Dallas operating as the No. 5 offense in EPA/Pass in 2026, Lamb remains the center of everything.
That’s why his receptions prop has been brought down to six.
Bucky Irving is another name in play. The Buccaneers leaned on the run in Daniels’ first start, and Irving handled most of the work.
He had 16 carries for 61 yards in the loss to Green Bay, marking his third straight game with at least 15 carries. Irving is averaging 4.3 yards per carry this season, and he’s played 62.2 percent of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps.
Even though Sean Tucker ran for a touchdown and Kenneth Gainwell caught one in Week 4, Irving still looks like the back most likely to get volume, and Dallas has been vulnerable on the ground. The Cowboys rank 20th in EPA/Rush and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry in 2026.
Dak Prescott is the other big piece of the board. After a 175-yard opener against the New York Giants, he’s topped this passing number in three straight games.
He threw for 335 yards in Week 4 against Houston and had at least 276 passing yards in both Week 2 against Washington and Week 3 against Baltimore. Tampa Bay has actually been solid against the pass, allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards in the league, but this is still a home spot for Prescott in a matchup Dallas should control.
He averaged 267.8 yards per game last season, and the expectation here is that he lands near that range again.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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