The Cowboys have a straightforward blueprint in front of them, and it starts with the run game. After leaning on Javonte Williams in last week’s win over the Eagles, Dallas gets a Cardinals defense that has been vulnerable on the ground and far sturdier against the pass. If the Cowboys stick with the formula, the rest of the offense should have room to breathe.
Williams was the centerpiece last week, piling up 155 yards on 25 carries as Dallas churned out 204 rushing yards on 38 attempts, a season high. Dak Prescott threw for 212 yards on a season-low 27 pass attempts, while the receiving production came efficiently rather than in bulk.
CeeDee Lamb caught two touchdowns, George Pickens added another, and Brevyn Spann-Ford was the only tight end to record a catch, finishing with two receptions on two targets. Jake Ferguson was targeted once and drew a pass interference call.
Arizona comes in off a mixed offensive showing against Denver. The Cardinals totaled 94 rushing yards and 272 passing yards, but their execution in scoring territory and on money downs was rough: they went 1-for-5 in the red zone and converted only 5 of 17 third-down chances. Jacoby Brissett was sacked three times, and Trey McBride was their brightest spot, catching 10 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown for season highs in both receptions and receiving yards.
That kind of production from McBride has become a theme, because the Cardinals need him. Outside of him, the offense has been short on reliable answers.
Arizona does have two running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier, but both are averaging fewer than four yards per carry this season, and Love may not be available because of injury. If he does play, he brings the most juice of the pair, but the overall profile is still one that has struggled to produce explosive plays and finish drives.
Dallas should be able to attack that weakness on the ground. Arizona ranks 28th in rush success percentage allowed, according to SumerSports, while sitting eighth in pass success percentage allowed. That makes the path pretty clear for Brian Schottenheimer’s offense: keep feeding the backfield and make the Cardinals prove they can stop it.
The timing matters, too. The Cowboys are trying to climb back into the NFC East race and cannot really afford another loss before they face the 49ers on November 15th.
At 3-4, they’re at home against a 2-5 Arizona team that has a brutal -66 point differential through seven weeks, worst in the NFL. The Cardinals have shown they can keep the score respectable in isolated spots, allowing 14 points in Week 1 and 16 in Week 6, and winning both of those games.
But when they lose, the losses have usually been lopsided, with only one single-score defeat on the season.
That’s why the start matters so much for Dallas. If the defense can get a stop early instead of waiting until later in the game, the Cowboys have a real chance to put this away before it gets weird. Arizona has enough talent to make life uncomfortable, especially with McBride on the field, but the numbers point to Dallas controlling the matchup and, with FanDuel listing the Cowboys as seven-point favorites, coming in with the clear edge.
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That leaves the Cowboys in a tricky spot, because the most workable path may be the kind of deal teams almost never pull off in-season. A player-for-player swap would fit the roster math better than a pick-heavy trade, but it would also force Dallas to consider moving a key piece from its own lineup. George Pickens, currently on the franchise tag, is one of the names that naturally comes into that discussion, which is exactly why the deadline feels more complicated than a simple buyer-or-seller decision. [Read more 🡒]