Week 1 is finally here, and the betting board has a little something for every type of NFL bettor: an upset, a points game, and a Sunday night side.
One of the sharper underdog looks lands on Carolina. In the weekly SI upset picks panel, the case was made for the Panthers to knock off the Bears outright, and the logic starts with Chicago being treated as a major regression team.
The Bears went 7-4 in one-score games last season, and six of those wins came after they were trailing with two minutes or less left. They also finished first in the NFL in average turnover differential per game at +0.9.
Those kinds of breaks are hard to keep repeating.
There are other reasons for caution, too. Chicago lost DJ Moore, and the defense took a step back.
Caleb Williams had his moments late last season, but the numbers behind the flashes weren’t especially clean: he finished 20th in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in completion percentage over expected. With Carolina getting home underdog treatment in a Week 1 opener that figures to be unpredictable, the pick is to roll the dice on the Panthers.
If the goal is fireworks, the game to target is Cardinals-Chargers. The Chargers’ offense is set up to be one of the more exciting units in the league if things click.
Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are healthy, and Mike McDaniel is now calling the plays as offensive coordinator. That’s the kind of setup that can turn into a weekly box-office act.
The other side of that matchup brings some questions. Los Angeles will be trying to adjust after losing defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who is now the head coach of Baltimore, and that defense may need a few weeks before it finds its groove.
Arizona, meanwhile, had one of the league’s worst defenses a year ago, but there’s enough on offense to keep things moving. Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, and the backfield pairing of Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier give the Cardinals a path to chunk plays and scoring chances.
For Sunday night, the recommendation is Cowboys minus the points against the Giants. The skepticism is aimed squarely at New York. John Harbaugh is expected to reshape the culture, but that alone doesn’t make Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo a team worthy of being only slight underdogs against one of the best offenses in football from last season.
Dallas has its own path to a strong season if the defense improves and the offense keeps rolling. If the Cowboys can make those defensive adjustments while matching last year’s offensive output, they’ll be a tough team for anybody to deal with.
In Other News...
Cowboys Fans Have A New Overshown Question After That Giants Opener
The Cowboys season opener against the Giants brought an immediate jolt when New York hit the end zone early, but the bigger Dallas talking point may have come on defense. DeMarvion Overshown, back healthy after a tough run of knee injuries, is supposed to be a key piece in the Cowboys scheme, the kind of linebacker whose speed and urgency can change a game in a hurry.
Instead, one of the first moments fans latched onto was Overshowns late hit on Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart, a play that drew a penalty and is now under league review for a possible fine. For a player whose return already carries plenty of weight, the question in Dallas is no longer just how he fits into the defense, but how he balances that edge without giving away costly yards in the process. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Loss Exposed The Same Problems Fans Feared Most
The Cowboys opened the season with a loss to the Giants that did little to quiet the doubts hanging over the team after an offseason of change. Dallas fell 28-20 and, for long stretches, looked familiar in all the wrong ways as the defense again had trouble getting off the field and the offense spent too much time chasing the game.
New York converted 10 of 11 third downs, a number that says plenty about how often Dallas let manageable moments turn into drive-sustaining ones. Add in penalties, poor tackling, an interception and dropped passes, and the afternoon became less about one bad break than a collection of problems fans had been warning about before kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Let A Winnable Night In New York Slip Away Fast
For a Dallas team that had a chance to turn a tense Sunday night into something far more manageable, the sequence before halftime was the kind of swing that lingers. The Cowboys got a fumble recovery near the break and briefly had life against the Giants, only for Dak Prescott to throw an interception that helped flip the mood almost immediately.
New York answered with a quick touchdown drive before halftime and never let the Cowboys get back on even footing. From there, Dallas spent the second half chasing the game instead of controlling it, and the Giants stayed in front all the way to a 28-20 finish. [Read more 🡒]