What’s the Cowboys assumption most likely to be wrong?
That’s the question worth sitting with, because it’s easy to get comfortable with what we think we know about a team and then watch it all unravel.
One place to be careful is the idea that Dallas’ offense is automatically headed for another big year in 2026 just because it was productive in 2025. That kind of thinking can sneak up on people.
Regression to the mean is real, and it doesn’t only work in the direction we want. It’s tempting to assume the defense will rebound because it has to bounce back, but the same warning applies on the other side of the ball.
Offenses don’t carry momentum like a paused VHS tape. Every season starts fresh, and every unit has to prove itself again.
That said, there is a strong recent track record here that makes the offense feel less like a guess and more like a pattern. Dak Prescott finished second in MVP voting in 2023, and that was easily CeeDee Lamb’s best season with the Cowboys. Brian Schottenheimer, now the head coach and offensive play-caller, was also part of that team, which matters when you’re trying to connect the dots.
More broadly, the Cowboys offense has been productive for much of the Dak Prescott era. Since the 2018 season, after the Amari Cooper trade, it has generally been “good enough,” even if there have been stretches with obvious issues.
So maybe that assumption about the offense turns out to be right after all. If so, the more fragile one may be somewhere else.
In Other News...
George Pickens Just Sent Cowboys Fans A Needed Message Before Camp
With training camp set to open July 29 in Oxnard, the Cowboys are heading into the summer with a familiar offensive core and a new layer of intrigue around George Pickens. Dallas returns all 11 starters on offense, and Pickens has already made one of the clearest statements he can make this time of year by showing up for Dak Prescotts annual offensive skill position player retreat in Utah, where the group spent time together before the real work begins.
For a team trying to keep its passing game on track heading toward the 2026 season, those early gatherings matter, especially with Pickens still settling into the Cowboys rhythm after a spring that included a late arrival to OTAs before he joined the mandatory portion of the offseason program. The next question is how all of that translates once camp starts and the pads come on, because the Cowboys are counting on their new receiver to fit quickly into an offense that already has a lot of continuity. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Offense Has A Thin Margin For Error In 2026
The Cowboys are heading into 2026 with a rare kind of continuity on offense, keeping the entire unit together while the defense absorbs most of the change. That stability sounds good on paper, but it also leaves a few familiar pressure points in place, especially along the line and in the backfield, where young players are still being asked to grow into bigger jobs. Tyler Guyton, Jaydon Blue and Cooper Beebe are among the names carrying that burden, with each one needing a better year if Dallas wants the offense to look more dependable than it did at times last season.
Brevyn Spann-Ford is another player worth watching as the Cowboys sort out how much they want to lean into their tight end depth behind Jake Ferguson. He outplayed Luke Schoonmaker last year and has moved into the TE2 spot, which gives Dallas another potential piece if the offense uses more two-tight-end sets. The bigger picture is simple enough: with so much of the offense already set, the Cowboys do not have many places to hide if one of these spots turns into a weak link. [Read more 🡒]
Jerry Jones Faces Another Massive Cowboys Decision On Quinnen Williams
Quinnen Williams is barely settled into what should be his first full season in Dallas, but his long-term future is already the kind of conversation that tends to follow premium talent around the Cowboys. Jerry Jones has never been shy about moving early on core players when it helps with cap planning, and Williams fits the profile of a defender whose value can climb fast if he looks like the difference-maker Dallas expects.
The timing matters because defensive tackle money keeps rising, and the Cowboys know how quickly a bargain can turn into a premium. Williams has already drawn enough attention to make an extension a real possibility before the season gets rolling, and Dallas may prefer to get ahead of that market rather than chase it later. [Read more 🡒]