Thursday Night Football in Week 5 is set up as an NFC matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys, but the betting market has already made its opinion clear. Even with Baker Mayfield dealing with a thumb injury and not expected to play, the line has moved toward Tampa Bay.
The Cowboys opened as 10-point home favorites, yet that number has been trimmed. DraftKings Sportsbook now has Tampa Bay listed as an 8.5-point underdog on the road, despite the Bucs still looking for their first win of the season and expected to turn again to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.
Daniels will be making his second straight start after opening his NFL career with a 14-point outing against Green Bay in Week 4. In that loss, he threw two interceptions, and Tampa Bay failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Buccaneers are now 0-4 against the spread overall and 0-2 as an underdog.
Dallas, meanwhile, has only played one home game in the 2026 season, a Week 2 meeting with Washington, and it covered in that win. The Cowboys are also coming off a dominant Week 4 victory over the Houston Texans that brought them back to .500.
Still, bettors have shown real interest in Tampa Bay for this primetime spot. As of Wednesday morning, DraftKings said 43 percent of the spread bets and 10 percent of the moneyline bets were on the Buccaneers.
Dallas is still drawing the majority of spread bets, but the move in the line suggests Tampa Bay action has had an impact. DraftKings has Dallas at -112 to cover, and the number could move back to Cowboys -9 by Thursday kickoff.
The SI Betting team has already made picks on a side in Iain MacMillan's Road to 272 column and on a total in the betting preview for the first Week 5 matchup. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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The timing matters because Dallas is already sorting through a crowded injury report heading into the game, with several players listed as questionable or out. Quinnen Williams also pointed to the challenge of the quick turnaround between games, which only adds to the pressure on a line that could use all the stability it can get if Smith is cleared to go. [Read more 🡒]
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Cowboys Have A Thursday Night Edge Fans Will Want To Track
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For the Cowboys, the setup puts even more attention on Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to keep the offense moving and press an advantage that already looks present on paper. The betting angle also points Dallas way, with recent production and defensive rankings feeding into the case for the home side, though this one still carries the usual short-week caution that can make prime-time matchups tricky to trust completely. [Read more 🡒]