Cowboys Face One Week 3 Problem That Could Swing Everything

Can the Cowboys capitalize on Dak Prescott's stellar form against a formidable Ravens rushing attack, or will their ground game struggles prove too costly?

The Cowboys head into Week 3 with momentum from their first win, but the matchup waiting in Brazil is a tough one. Dallas has looked far more dangerous through the air than on the ground, and Baltimore brings a run game that can punish a defense the Cowboys have already had trouble stopping.

That makes Dak Prescott the cleanest buy on the board. Against Washington, he went 26 of 31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with a 143.8 passer rating.

That wasn’t a one-game spike, either. Through two weeks, Prescott has completed 73.8% of his throws for 454 yards, six touchdowns and one interception.

He also jumped from 5.2 yards per attempt against the Giants to 9.0 against Washington.

Baltimore’s pass defense has been solid, but not untouchable. The Ravens are giving up 191 passing yards per game, which ranks 11th, and New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough found plenty of success in the second half of Baltimore’s Week 2 loss, completing 15 of 19 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown.

There’s also the simple math of the matchup: Dallas is averaging just 67.5 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL, while Baltimore allows only 83.5 on the ground, fifth in the league. If the Cowboys can’t run it, Prescott is going to have to carry more of the load.

So far, that has worked out just fine.

The same logic points to a sell on the Cowboys running backs. It’s not a talent issue so much as a production issue.

Dallas hasn’t been able to get the ground game moving, and Baltimore is built to make that problem worse. The Cowboys managed only 66 rushing yards on 21 carries against Washington, even with the passing game humming.

Dallas’ own film review said the team struggled to establish the run.

There is a wrinkle here if defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike returns. He was a full participant in practice this week after dealing with a neck injury, and he’d be another strong presence in the middle of Baltimore’s front. The backs could still matter as receivers - Williams already has eight catches through two games - but if this is about rushing production, the outlook is rough.

CeeDee Lamb, meanwhile, is an obvious buy after his breakout against Washington. He caught eight passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns, bringing his two-game line to 13 catches for 197 yards and three scores. He’s averaging 15.2 yards per catch and accounted for more than half of Prescott’s passing yardage in that game.

Baltimore’s secondary has the task now. The Ravens are allowing 191 passing yards per game, but they also gave up 233 passing yards to New Orleans, including 150 from Shough in the second half.

Baltimore has already pointed to Lamb and Pickens as the main problems for a secondary that could be without safety Malaki Starks. The Ravens may also use Kyle Hamilton in different roles to try to handle Dallas’ receivers.

Lamb has made the job tougher by not needing much separation to do damage. He caught eight of nine targets against Washington and kept winning his matchups all game long.

If Baltimore tilts coverage his way, Pickens gets more interesting. If it doesn’t, the answer is simple: feed 88.

The final sell is the Cowboys’ rush defense, and this one is as straightforward as it gets. Dallas has been gashed on the ground, allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game, third-most in the NFL through two weeks. Baltimore is averaging 155 rushing yards per game, fourth in the league.

Derrick Henry has already piled up 212 yards and four touchdowns on 40 carries, while averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Lamar Jackson has added 74 yards on 11 carries. The Cowboys have also had trouble getting off the field, with opponents converting 17 of 25 third downs, a 68% clip.

If Henry is consistently churning out positive yards on first and second down, Dallas could spend a long afternoon chasing Jackson and watching Baltimore control the tempo. And after the Ravens let a fourth-quarter lead slip in a 15-0 loss to New Orleans, they should have plenty of reason to lean into the thing they do best: run the football.

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