The Cowboys have a familiar path in front of them this week, and the numbers point to a strong chance they take it. Dallas has not opened a season 0-2 since 2010, Dak Prescott is 5-0 in the game immediately after a Week 1 loss, and history against Washington tilts heavily toward the Cowboys.
That history is hard to ignore. Dallas leads the all-time series 81-49-2, and Prescott’s Cowboys are 13-2 against the Commanders.
In five of those wins, Prescott came out early because the game was already out of hand. Over 15 games against Washington, he has piled up 3,716 passing yards with 32 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 107.4 passer rating.
That’s his best mark against any NFC East opponent. The most memorable recent meeting came in Week 12 of 2024, when the teams combined for seven fourth-quarter scores, including a KaVontae Turpin kick return touchdown.
The urgency is obvious after what Dallas showed in Week 1. Prescott finished with 175 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while the longest offensive play was just 17 yards. The defense had its own problems, allowing Jaxson Dart to post a 134.2 passer rating, giving up 165 rushing yards, and letting the Giants drain the clock on long scoring drives.
Washington comes in with its own mixed bag from opening week. Jayden Daniels threw for 164 yards against the Eagles and added 31 more on the ground.
Philadelphia got pressure on 19 of his 38 drop backs, and Daniels went 3-15 for 26 yards when that pressure came without the blitz. But when the Eagles sent extra rushers, he responded with a 5-7 line for 47 yards and two touchdowns.
That split matters for this matchup.
The Commanders’ defense also gave up a pile of explosive plays against Philadelphia - 64, 43, 42, 41, and 22 yards among them - and had trouble with Dallas Goedert, who caught four passes for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the bigger picture from that game was more nuanced than the raw score suggested.
Washington forced five three-and-outs and seven punts, and 138 of Jalen Hurts’ 203 passing yards came on just three plays. Saquon Barkley had 83 rushing yards, but 42 of them came on a single carry.
The Commanders were vulnerable to chunk plays, but they also held up well when those explosive moments were removed.
That is where Dallas should see its opening. The Commanders’ secondary was ranked 31st by Sharp Football before the season, and Week 1 did little to change that view.
The Cowboys should lean on CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens early and often, especially against Mike Sainristil, who was the weak spot last week and allowed more than 35 yards per reception. If Dallas wants those big gains, the offensive line will also have to stand up to a pass rush featuring Odafe Oweh, Dorance Armstrong, K’Lavon Chaisson and Daron Payne.
Sonny Styles is another name to watch after his strong impact last week, including a Jalen Hurts sack after he blew up Saquon Barkley.
On the other side, the Cowboys’ defense has a chance to make this game simpler by doing what Philadelphia did not: get home without relying on the blitz. Daniels was far less comfortable when the Eagles pressured him with four, but he handled the blitz much better. If Dallas can pressure him without extra rushers and clean up the mental mistakes from Week 1, that changes the shape of the game.
The expectation here is a Dallas response. The matchup between the Cowboys’ receivers and Washington’s defensive backs is a clear strength-on-weakness setup, and it would be a surprise if the offense stalled again.
A 27-point night for Dallas feels like the baseline. The bigger swing factor is how often the defense can get Washington off the field and hand the ball back to Prescott.
Even so, the numbers lean toward the Cowboys at home against their division rival.
In Other News...
Former Cowboys Pass Rusher Returns With Something To Prove In Dallas
Dorance Armstrong is set to make his 2026 debut Sunday against the Cowboys, a familiar opponent for a pass rusher who spent years in Dallas before moving on to Washington. After serving a one-game suspension and working back from the torn ACL that wiped out most of last season, Armstrong enters the matchup with a fresh chance to reestablish himself in a game that still carries some extra edge for everyone involved.
Washington's staff has said it is confident Armstrong is ready to go, and the plan is to rotate him with the rest of the pass-rush group to keep his workload manageable. For Dallas, that means facing a former defensive end who knows the building, the personnel and the stage, even if the bigger question now is how much of Armstrong's old burst has returned after such a long absence. [Read more 🡒]
Jerry Jones Just Raised The Stakes For Dallas' Shaky Defense
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The challenge for Dallas is that belief and execution are two different things, and the defense has given plenty of reasons for skepticism already. Jones is framing the Commanders matchup as a chance to reset, but until the Cowboys actually string together a cleaner outing, every promise of improvement comes with a layer of doubt that the schedule will quickly test. [Read more 🡒]
Jerry Jones May Soon Face A Cowboys Decision He Hates
Brian Schottenheimers second season in Dallas already carries the sort of early pressure that tends to come with this franchise, even if the Cowboys have historically shown more patience with head coaches than most. After going 7-9-1 in his first year, Schottenheimer watched the team open a new defensive chapter by moving on from Matt Eberflus and turning the unit over to Christian Parker, a change meant to steady a side of the ball that has been a major point of concern.
Instead, the defense stumbled in Week 1 against the New York Giants, and that is where the unease begins to creep in for a team that cannot afford another losing year. There is already speculation about Schottenheimers seat if the record goes the wrong way again, and for Jerry Jones, the uncomfortable part may be less about making a change than having to consider one at all. [Read more 🡒]