The Brian Schottenheimer era in Dallas is nearing the end of its first chapter, and while the Cowboys aren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention just yet, it would take something bordering on a football miracle to sneak into the postseason. Think Staubach-to-Pearson levels of improbable. Realistically, the Cowboys are staring down a second straight season without a playoff berth.
But if you're looking for a silver lining, consider this: given the state of the roster Schottenheimer inherited - and the gut punch of losing their franchise defensive star just before Week 1 - a six- to eight-win campaign isn’t exactly a disaster. In fact, some might argue it’s a modest overachievement.
That said, moral victories don’t last long in Dallas. This weekend’s home finale against the 10-4 Los Angeles Chargers isn’t just another game - it’s the final real measuring stick for Schottenheimer in Year 1.
The Cowboys still have two games left after this one - divisional matchups against the Commanders and Giants - but those contests won’t tell us much we don’t already know. The real test is this Sunday.
The Chargers are hot, riding a three-game win streak that includes knocking the Chiefs out of playoff contention and a primetime win over the Eagles. They’re not flashy, but they’re tough, disciplined, and they know how to win tight games - they’re 6-1 in one-score contests this season.
The Cowboys? 3-2-1 in those same situations.
Close games have been a coin flip, and this week’s opponent knows how to tilt the odds.
The biggest challenge for Schottenheimer? Cracking Jesse Minter’s defense.
Minter is one of the hottest names in coaching circles right now, and for good reason. His Chargers defense is playing at a top-10 level across the board.
They’re allowing just 174.4 passing yards per game - third-best in the league - and only 104.4 rushing yards, which ranks tenth. Add in 20 takeaways (7th) and 40 sacks (tied for sixth), and you’ve got a unit that isn’t just stingy - they’re opportunistic and aggressive.
This isn’t a defense that lets you get comfortable.
That’s where things get tricky for Dallas. The offense, once the bright spot of the season, has stalled.
Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens were leading a unit that looked dynamic early on. But since the Lions game, the wheels have started to wobble.
The run game has gone cold - just 229 rushing yards over the last two weeks, good for 16th in the league during that span - and Pickens has hit a wall, managing only eight catches for 70 yards and no touchdowns. Against a defense like Minter’s, those struggles could be magnified.
And this game isn’t just about now - it could be a preview of what’s to come. If Minter ends up taking a head coaching job, say with a team like the Giants, and brings that same defensive mindset to the NFC East, this could be the first chapter in a longer rivalry. Think Abdul Carter being unleashed in a Lawrence Taylor-type role - that’s the kind of vision teams are seeing in Minter’s future.
For Schottenheimer, the mission over the final stretch is simple: win. But beating the Chargers would mean more than just another W in the standings.
It would show that this team can compete with playoff-caliber opponents, that the offense can respond to adversity, and that Schottenheimer can go toe-to-toe with one of the league’s sharpest defensive minds. That kind of momentum matters heading into what promises to be a pivotal offseason.
But if the Cowboys fall flat again against a team with a winning record? That’s when the questions start to get louder. Not just about this season, but about whether Schottenheimer is the guy who can finally lead Dallas back to the Super Bowl conversation - or just another name in a long line of coaches who couldn’t get them over the hump.