The Week 9 Survivor board opens with a clean split for the SI Betting team: the Kansas City Chiefs at home against the New York Jets, and the Dallas Cowboys on the road against the Indianapolis Colts.
Week 8 was rough for Survivor players, and Dallas was the team that did the most damage. The Cowboys entered as a touchdown favorite at home and still got clipped by the Arizona Cardinals, a result that burned plenty of entries - including one of the two picks the SI Betting team had put out there. Cincinnati at least salvaged part of the week by hanging on in overtime against the Tennessee Titans, keeping the group from taking an 0-2 hit.
Now the focus shifts to a Week 9 slate that gives players plenty of choices, with only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans off. The week starts Thursday night with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens, and the broader survivor landscape has already been thinned out by a run of upsets across the league.
MacMillan is back in the mix this week, and his case starts with Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 8, but the matchup is the kind survivor players want to target: a home game against a Jets team that, according to the source material, can’t beat the likes of the Miami Dolphins or Las Vegas Raiders.
Kansas City has had trouble finishing drives against the league’s best teams, but the combination of its running game and defense makes it a strong play against weaker opponents. The Jets’ defense has also been shaky, ranking 24th in opponent success rate.
There isn’t a deep stash of obvious Chiefs spots left either, with a home game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 mentioned as the other potential survivor option. For MacMillan, though, this is the week to use them.
He expects Kansas City to handle business and send survivor entries into Week 10.
Dewey is taking the other side of the Week 8 pain and going right back to Dallas. He knows how bad that loss was for Survivor players, but he’s willing to trust the Cowboys on the road in a game they need to have against the Colts.
Indianapolis was routed by Jacksonville, 42-7, in Week 8 and is described as a team that could move on from more pieces before the trade deadline. The Colts are 2-6 and sit near the bottom of the league in efficiency on both sides of the ball, ranking 29th in EPA/Play on offense and 23rd on defense.
Dallas has its own defensive issues - the Cowboys are last in EPA/Play and 30th in yards per play allowed - but the offense is still carrying real weight. They scored 30 points again against Arizona and remain a top-10 team in EPA/Play and success rate on that side of the ball.
Dak Prescott should have room to operate against a Colts defense that just gave up three passing touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Dewey also points to Daniel Jones as a quarterback who is clearly in over his head, noting that Jones has five touchdown passes, nine interceptions and a 60.4 percent completion rate.
With Dallas listed as a six-point road favorite, he sees this as a must-win spot and a game the Cowboys need to take if the NFC East crown is going to stay within reach.
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