The Cowboys don’t have much room for error, but they’re not buried yet.
After five weeks and a 2-3 start, Dallas still sits as the current favorite to win the NFC East. And even with that rough opening, The Athletic’s playoff simulator still gives the Cowboys a 41 percent chance to reach the 2026 NFL Playoffs. That includes a 35 percent shot at winning the division and locking in a home playoff game, plus a 6 percent chance to sneak in as a Wild Card team.
That Wild Card number has already nudged up a bit after the Seahawks lost on Thursday Night Football and dropped to 3-3.
The rest of the division is crowded into the picture, too. The Athletic has the Eagles right behind Dallas at 26 percent to win the NFC East, with the Giants just behind them at 23 percent even though they currently sit atop the division at 3-1-1.
Sunday night against the Packers could swing those numbers in a big way. If Dallas wins on the road in primetime, the Cowboys’ playoff chances would rise to roughly 52 percent. If they lose, those odds would tumble to 31 percent.
There’s also a path where the numbers barely move at all. If the Eagles, who are without Jalen Hurts, and the Giants both lose in Week 6, Dallas might not see much of a shift in its playoff outlook. The NFC East is already shaping up as one of the league’s weakest divisions, and that kind of weekend could leave the standings mostly frozen.
The best-case setup is even better. If the Cowboys win and the other three NFC East teams all lose, Dallas would jump to a 57 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 50 percent chance of winning the division. After six weeks, that would suddenly look a lot more like control than chaos.
Still, the bigger point is that Dallas needs to start stacking wins and show that its defense can improve as the season goes on. This is an important game, but Week 7 may matter even more. If the Cowboys lose to Green Bay but bounce back with a win next week, their playoff odds would still rise sharply over that two-game stretch.
So while Sunday night matters, it’s only one game in a 17-game season. What Dallas does against the rest of the NFC East is going to matter a lot more in the long run.
For now, though, the Cowboys remain in a better position than their record suggests. A win over the Packers would do plenty to change the mood and make it easier to believe this team can still make a push.
In Other News...
Cowboys May Be Rethinking Caleb Downs At The Worst Time
The Cowboys are heading into their next game against the Green Bay Packers with a notable adjustment in mind for rookie Caleb Downs, with the staff looking at using him differently and potentially sliding him back toward his original spot near the line of scrimmage. It is the kind of tweak that can say as much about where a defense is right now as it does about the player himself, and Dallas is making it with several contributors still sidelined by injuries.
Mike Pettines arrival as a senior defensive assistant adds another layer to the situation, giving the Cowboys another experienced voice as they sort through the latest version of their defensive puzzle. Elsewhere, the roster churn continues to be felt too, with Joe Milton having been signed off Dallas practice squad by the Philadelphia Eagles and now set to face his former team in an upcoming game. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Hit With Another Distraction Days Before Packers Game
With the Packers game looming, the Cowboys are dealing with another bit of fallout from their Week 5 win over Tampa Bay. The NFL announced its official disciplinary decisions and fined defensive lineman Otito Ogbonnia $11,111 for a facemask penalty tied to unnecessary roughness in the second quarter against the Buccaneers.
The play cost Dallas a 15-yard penalty and an automatic first down for Tampa Bay, adding a little more irritation to a game already full of physical edge. It is the kind of detail that does not change the upcoming matchup on its own, but it does underscore how quickly the margins can become part of the conversation for a team trying to keep its focus on Green Bay. [Read more 🡒]
Former Cowboys Punters Tragic Death Brought An Emotional Family Reflection
Former NFL punter Kasey Redferns death has left a heavy mark on the football community, and for Cowboys fans it adds another somber note to a career that briefly ran through Dallas and several other NFL stops. Redfern, a Wofford product, spent time with the Jaguars, Chargers, Panthers, Browns, Lions, Cowboys and Falcons, a reminder of how many locker rooms he touched during his journey through the league.
Lauryl Redfern had shared updates as he battled brain cancer, offering a window into a fight that had become deeply personal for the family. His passing closes a difficult chapter, but it also underscores how quickly a players NFL story can become something much bigger than football, especially when the people closest to him are left carrying both the memories and the grief. [Read more 🡒]