The Green Bay Packers are aiming for a third straight win when they welcome the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the setup points toward another game with plenty of scoring.
Green Bay has steadied itself after an upset loss to the Falcons in Week 3. Since then, the Packers have edged Tampa Bay 17-14 and then handled the Bears 31-7.
Dallas comes in with the kind of season that has been anything but smooth, alternating losses and wins so far. The Cowboys also arrive off an upset loss to the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, though that short week came with a built-in advantage: a few extra days to rest and get ready for this one.
These two teams know how to light up a scoreboard against each other. They played to a 40-40 tie in Dallas last September.
The betting market hasn’t shown much movement on the side in this one, but the total has ticked up from 52.5 to 53.5. That lines up with the way this matchup looks on paper. SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan leaned into the over in his Road to 272 Bets column, pointing to the Cowboys’ weekly profile and the weakness of both defenses.
“My strategy for the Cowboys this season is fairly straightforward. If they're favored, bet against them; if they're getting points, take them, if it's close to a pick'em bet the OVER.
Their defense is too bad to lay points on them, but their offense is too good to ever underestimate them. That's why, in this week's coin-flip game against the Packers, I'm going to bet the OVER, especially considering the Packers have a similar issue.”
The numbers back up that view. The two defenses rank 24th and 32nd in opponent success rate, and Dallas sits 32nd in opponent EPA per play. In a game that already has a history of wild scoring, that’s a tough combination to ignore.
MacMillan said it best: “Let's sit back and root for points on Sunday Night Football.”
That’s the angle here. The over feels like the cleanest play, especially when you consider what these teams have already done when they’ve met recently. In the last two years, they combined for 80 points in each matchup - last year’s 40-40 tie and Green Bay’s 48-32 playoff win the year before.
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