The Cowboys and Colts arrived in this season with big expectations, and both have spent the last several weeks tearing those expectations apart. Indianapolis is riding a four-game losing streak and has already gone into full fire-sale mode after firing its general manager and dealing away the team’s top stars for future draft capital. Dallas isn’t exactly in a better place, either, with three losses in its last four games.
That makes Sunday feel less like a clash of contenders and more like a game that could go sideways in a hurry. With that in mind, here are five things to keep an eye on when the Cowboys and Colts meet.
The biggest question starts on the ground, where Dallas has been living on borrowed time. Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys have dodged some of the league’s top backs because of injuries and other absences, avoiding a full dose of Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, and Jeremiah Love. Instead, they saw backups such as Pierre Strong, Dameon Pierce, and Tyler Allgeier.
That should have helped. It didn’t.
The Cowboys have still been getting run over, which is why the status of Jonathan Taylor almost feels beside the point. Taylor is one of the league’s premier players, but he’s also been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, and it’s not clear how much Indianapolis will lean on him.
He carried just eight times last week as the Colts seemed to protect his health and preserve his trade value. If Taylor is held back again, Dallas may see more of Seth McGowan or D.J.
Giddens. If he’s unleashed, the Cowboys could be in for a long afternoon.
The last fully healthy starting back they faced, Bucky Irving, had his way with them.
The Colts’ passing game is built much differently. Their offense leans heavily on the run, and when they do throw, it’s usually short and safe.
Tyler Warren and Josh Downs are the main targets in that quick-hit approach. Under normal circumstances, that would be a problem for a Cowboys secondary that has handed out far too many easy plays this season.
But Indianapolis doesn’t really have the kind of vertical threat that can fully exploit Dallas downfield.
Daniel Jones is operating behind an offensive line that just lost All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson in a trade, so he’s likely to take some pressure even if the Cowboys’ pass rush remains inconsistent. Among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify for leaderboard status, Jones is the only one without a touchdown pass on a throw that traveled 10 yards or more in the air. If Dallas still finds a way to make him look like the legendary Gardner Minshew, that would be a rough sign for the Cowboys’ defense.
There’s also a chance this game turns into a trench battle in Dallas’ favor. Indianapolis has been giving up points at a brutal clip, ranking third-worst in the league in that category, and the run defense has only gotten shakier since the Colts traded away DeForest Buckner. That opens the door for Tyler Smith and Tyler Booker to go to work up front.
The Cowboys need that kind of push. They can’t afford to get away from the run if things get bumpy early, especially against a Colts defense that has struggled to stop it.
Javonte Williams should have a chance to get going, and Tyler Goodson could be in line for his best game of the season against his former team. The last time these teams met, another former Colt, Malik Hooker, had his best outing in a Cowboys uniform.
Sunday could produce a similar story if an overlooked backup gets a bigger workload and makes it count.
Turnovers could decide a game that already has the feel of a mess waiting to happen. The old Blunder Bowl featured seven giveaways, and this matchup has the ingredients for something similarly sloppy. Both teams are among the worst in the NFL at taking the ball away, sitting in the bottom three.
The encouraging sign for Dallas is that the Colts have been prone to giving it up, while the Cowboys’ defense has started to make some headway in the takeaway department. After a three-game stretch without forcing a turnover, Dallas has come up with at least one takeaway in three straight weeks, including a season-high two last time out. That’s a step forward, and if the Cowboys are going to steady themselves, they need to keep hunting for the football against an offense that has been compromised and vulnerable.
And then there’s the fourth quarter, where this team has become impossible to trust. Last week’s collapse against Arizona was stunning, with the Cardinals finishing with 33 points after being stuck on three late in the third quarter. That kind of finish can wreck a game in a hurry.
Oddly enough, the last time these teams played, the final quarter was just as wild, only in Dallas’ favor. The Cowboys and Colts were tied up in a 21-19 game heading into the fourth before Dallas exploded for 33 unanswered points and rolled to a 54-19 win.
No one can promise a repeat, but the Cowboys have made late-game chaos part of their identity lately. Against Arizona, it was a meltdown.
A week earlier against Philadelphia, it was a surge, with Dallas scoring 18 unanswered to pull away. So what happens this time?
Hard to know. But another strange finish feels very much on the table.
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