The Dallas Cowboys head into Week 10 at 4-5, still hanging around in the NFC East and within reach of the 5-2-1 New York Giants. But the bigger issue is the way those losses have piled up. That’s what makes this matchup with the San Francisco 49ers such a tough spot - and such an interesting one.
San Francisco comes in at 7-1 and keeps looking like the team on track for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers keep stacking wins, and Brock Purdy has been right in the middle of it.
He’s part of a three-man MVP race, sitting just behind Joe Burrow and Josh Allen at +450. Through eight games, Purdy has completed 69.1% of his passes for 1,980 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
He’s also added 201 rushing yards and two scores, a notable jump in production on the ground compared to previous seasons.
Still, the case for Dallas in this spot starts with the number. In this week’s Road to 272 Bets, the recommendation was to take the points with the Cowboys.
The reasoning goes back to a betting approach that’s worked well this season: fade Dallas when it’s laying points, back them when they’re catching them, and play the OVER when they’re in a coin-flip type of game. That approach didn’t get followed last week, and it cost money.
Now the Cowboys are home underdogs again, and that’s the spot to revisit.
There’s no question San Francisco is the stronger team, especially on defense. But the injury situation is starting to matter.
The 49ers may be without Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans at wide receiver, along with Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green at cornerback. Those absences could create openings for Dallas against a secondary that already has its hands full with Purdy playing at this level.
The odds and lines can move, but the current setup makes this a tricky one for San Francisco despite its record. The Cowboys are still alive, still at home, and still getting points - and that’s enough to make them the side to back here.
In Other News...
Cowboys Keep Winning Just Enough To Make Their Biggest Problem Worse
The Cowboys keep finding just enough to stay in the race, but the way they are doing it has only sharpened the questions around a team that still has not looked like a division frontrunner. Even after their latest win, the offense remains uneven against weaker opponents, and the margin for error has all but disappeared with Dallas four games behind the Giants in the loss column.
Mathematically, the NFC East is still there for the taking, which is what keeps the conversation alive. But the schedule ahead is not doing them any favors, and the bigger issue is harder to ignore: Dallas has yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, and its results against opponents with at least three wins have been poor enough to make every remaining game feel like a test the Cowboys have not passed yet. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Face A Risky DeMarvion Overshown Decision Soon
DeMarvion Overshown has given the Cowboys enough flashes to make the conversation worth having, but the bigger issue has always been whether they can count on him. Since being drafted in 2023, the linebacker has appeared in only 22 of a possible 60 games because of injuries, and that kind of availability makes any long-term commitment a tricky one for a team already working under tight salary cap constraints.
With free agency looming next spring, Dallas is heading toward a decision that could shape how it handles one of its more intriguing young defenders. The promise is there, but so is the risk, and the Cowboys may end up needing Overshown to accept a low-cost or prove-it type of arrangement if they want to keep him in the fold. [Read more 🡒]
Cowboys Just Got A Reality Check On George Pickens' Value
The trade deadline came and went with plenty of buzz around wide receivers, but George Pickens never actually turned into a real Cowboys discussion point. ESPNs Jeremy Fowler reported that Dallas did not get any trade inquiries for the wideout, a notable detail in a market where receiver prices have been pushed up by demand and deadline chatter alike. For a team that has spent plenty of time under the microscope for every roster move, the silence around Pickens said plenty on its own.
Pickens had been the subject of speculation, but the Cowboys were not operating with a trade in mind, and the lack of outside interest only sharpened the contrast between rumor and reality. In a deadline season where wide receiver value can be inflated fast, Dallas was left with a clearer read on where things stood than some of the chatter suggested, even if the bigger question around Pickens place with the team still lingers. [Read more 🡒]