The Cowboys are coming off a win over the Indianapolis Colts, but Week 10 brings a much bigger test: a home date with the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers. Nine weeks into the regular season, San Francisco has looked like one of the league’s top teams, and Dallas has plenty to worry about in this matchup.
The biggest issue starts with the 49ers on the ground. If a defense can’t slow that part of San Francisco’s offense, the whole game can get away fast.
Led by All-Pro Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers have been one of football’s best rushing teams again this season. They’ve put up at least 125 team rushing yards in five of eight games, rank seventh in rushing Y/A at 4.6 and third in rush EPA at -0.001, and lead the league in rush success rate at 49.5.
A major part of that success has been rookie running back Kaelon Black. San Francisco used a third-round pick on Black with the idea that he could help share the workload and keep McCaffrey fresh through the regular season, and so far that move has paid off.
McCaffrey has played in all eight games and has scored nine rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the league, on just 102 carries. He and Black are both averaging 4.5 Y/A and have rush success rates of 55% or better.
Together, they’ve given the 49ers a ground game that can control a game from the opening drive on.
That’s only half the problem for Dallas. San Francisco also has the league’s best run defense, which makes life even harder for an offense that has struggled when it can’t stay balanced.
The 49ers lead the NFL in defensive rush EPA at -0.215 and Y/A allowed at 3.3. They haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards in a game since Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins, when they gave up 102.
Over their last three games, the numbers have been even more suffocating. San Francisco has allowed an average of just 53 rushing yards in that span, along with a defensive rush EPA of -0.290 and a rush success rate of 34.9%.
If Dallas can’t create balance, it’s going to be very difficult to put together consistent drives against that front. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled when it loses that balance, and this matchup gives them little room for error.
Then there’s the Kyle Shanahan factor, which has been a problem for Dallas for years. The 49ers head coach has had the Cowboys’ number, and the recent results back that up.
Shanahan’s San Francisco teams have won four of the last six meetings, including the playoffs, and have averaged 26 points per game in those matchups. Dallas has not beaten a Shanahan-led 49ers team since December 2020, when the win came in a fairly meaningless late-season game.
Until the Cowboys prove otherwise, it’s hard to feel great about their chances against Shanahan and this San Francisco team. Sunday will tell the story.
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