The Cowboys’ Path to the Playoffs: Four Games, One Mission, and No Room for Error
After a tough loss to the Lions on Thursday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves at 6-6-1-still alive in the NFC playoff picture, but with much less margin for error. The three-game win streak that had fans dreaming of a late-season surge is gone, and now the Cowboys are staring down a four-game gauntlet that will determine whether they’re playing football in January or heading home early.
The good news? The math still works.
The Cowboys aren’t eliminated, and with the right combination of wins and a little help from the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas could still punch its ticket to the postseason-possibly even as NFC East champs. But the roadmap is clear: win out, and hope Philly stumbles.
Let’s break down what lies ahead, one week at a time, and what the Cowboys need to do to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Week 15 - vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-8) | Sunday Night Football
This one’s under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, and it’s a matchup that’s more intriguing than it looks on paper. Minnesota is coming off a dominant 31-0 win over Washington, with second-year quarterback J.J.
McCarthy showing flashes of why the Vikings are invested in his development. Interestingly, they barely needed Justin Jefferson-he had just two catches for 11 yards-and still steamrolled a depleted Commanders squad.
Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off a frustrating loss in Detroit, and wide receiver George Pickens found himself under the microscope for his body language and perceived lack of effort. That sets the stage for a bit of a redemption arc-not just for Pickens, but for a Cowboys team that knows it’s in must-win territory.
The Cowboys have been strong at home, and even if they’re without star receiver CeeDee Lamb, the offense has enough firepower to test a Vikings defense that’s been inconsistent all season. Expect Dallas to lean on tempo, play-action, and a defense that feeds off the home crowd.
Projected Result: Cowboys 33, Vikings 21
Week 16 - vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
This is a tricky one. The Chargers come in with a solid record and a quarterback in Justin Herbert who can light it up in a hurry. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll see a team that’s had some head-scratching performances-narrow wins against sub-.500 teams like the Dolphins and Titans, and losses to Washington and the Giants, both of whom Dallas has already beaten.
The key here will be how Dallas’ secondary holds up against Herbert and his top target, Ladd McConkey. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus will likely dial up a game plan to take away McConkey and force the Chargers to beat them elsewhere. If that happens, and if Javonte Williams can handle a heavy workload against a strong LA pass defense, Dallas has a real shot to pull this one out.
Projected Result: Cowboys 24, Chargers 17
Week 17 - at Washington Commanders (3-10)
The Commanders are out of the playoff hunt, but that doesn’t mean this one’s a gimme. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has been banged up, and while his status is something to monitor, he’s shown he can be dangerous when healthy-especially with his legs. He gave the Cowboys some problems in Week 7 before going down with a hamstring strain, and he’s since dealt with an elbow injury as well.
Still, with Washington playing for pride and draft position, this is a game Dallas should win-especially if their playoff hopes are still alive. But nothing can be taken for granted in December football, especially on the road.
Projected Result: Cowboys 35, Commanders 28
Week 18 - at New York Giants (2-11)
This is the softest landing spot you could ask for to close out the regular season. The Giants are in full rebuild mode and staring down the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. They’ve struggled all year, and unless Dallas completely loses focus, this should be a statement win to end the season.
That said, final-week games against eliminated teams can be dangerous. If Dallas lets its guard down, the Giants could play spoiler. But if the Cowboys are still in the hunt-and especially if they’re riding a three-game win streak-momentum should carry them through.
Projected Result: Cowboys 42, Giants 10
The Eagles Factor: Can Dallas Catch Philly?
Here’s where things get interesting. Dallas doesn’t just need to win out-they also need the Eagles to stumble. Philly currently holds a 1.5-game lead in the division and the head-to-head edge in the Wild Card race thanks to tiebreakers.
The Eagles’ final five games include two matchups against Washington and a date with the struggling Las Vegas Raiders. But they also face the Chargers and the AFC powerhouse Buffalo Bills. If Philadelphia drops both of those-and then slips up against either Vegas or Washington-Dallas could leapfrog them with a 10-6-1 finish.
That’s a tall order, but not impossible. The Eagles have lost two straight, and there are signs that the locker room is trying to rally itself with a bit of holiday spirit-reportedly adopting the Easter Bunny as a “positivity spirit animal.” Hey, whatever works.
Meanwhile, in Dallas, there’s no need for inflatable mascots or gimmicks. The message is simple: control what you can control.
As Dak Prescott put it this week:
“We’re going to need some things to happen for us.
So, I don't think it's in our control at this point, but what we can do is control the way that we approach this game. I think that's just led by the pride, the love that you have for this game, the teammate, this organization, your opportunity to play this game.”
That’s the mindset the Cowboys need to carry into the final stretch. Four games.
One mission. And no room for error.
If they can run the table, the rest of the NFC might want to start paying attention-because a hot Cowboys team sneaking into the playoffs is the kind of storyline that can shake up the entire bracket.