After an electrifying 11-day stretch that saw them knock off the Raiders, Eagles, and Chiefs in rapid succession, the Dallas Cowboys looked like a team rediscovering its swagger just in time for the playoff push. But any momentum they built came to a screeching halt in Week 14, when they opened the slate with a rough 44-30 loss to the Detroit Lions - a result that dealt a serious blow to their postseason hopes.
Still, at 6-6-1, the Cowboys aren’t out of it. Not yet. With a primetime matchup against the Minnesota Vikings on deck Sunday night, Dallas enters Week 15 with a sliver of hope - and a very narrow path to the playoffs.
Let’s be clear: the wild-card door is almost completely shut. Even if the Cowboys win out and finish 10-6-1, the NFC is just too crowded.
Here’s the current NFC playoff picture:
- Los Angeles Rams (10-3) - NFC West leaders
- Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) - NFC North leaders
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) - NFC East leaders
- Carolina Panthers (7-6) - NFC South leaders
- Seattle Seahawks (10-3) - Wild Card #1
- San Francisco 49ers (9-4) - Wild Card #2
- Chicago Bears (9-4) - Wild Card #3
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
As it stands, the Cowboys would need a miracle to climb into one of those three wild-card spots. The math just doesn’t work in their favor.
But the NFC East? That’s still in play - barely.
The Path: Win Out and Hope for Help
Let’s break it down. The Cowboys’ most realistic route to the postseason is by winning the division.
That means leapfrogging the Eagles, who currently sit at 8-5 after dropping their third straight game on Monday night. That slump has cracked the door open just enough for Dallas to sneak through - but only if they take care of business and get some help.
Here’s how the path unfolds:
- If Dallas wins out (10-6-1) and Philadelphia goes 2-2 the rest of the way (finishing 10-7), the Cowboys take the division crown thanks to the better record.
- If Dallas goes 2-1 (finishing 9-7-1), then Philly would need to stumble to a 1-3 finish (9-8) for Dallas to win the East.
- If Dallas goes 1-2 (8-8-1), then the Eagles would have to lose out (0-4, finishing 8-9). That’s technically possible, but let’s be honest - it’s a long shot.
The good news for Dallas? Their remaining schedule is favorable.
Three games they can absolutely win. The not-so-good news?
The Eagles’ slate is just as manageable. If Philly wins three of their final four - even with a potential loss to the Bills - they’ll finish 11-6, and the Cowboys' best-case 10-6-1 record won’t be enough.
So while the math isn’t impossible, the margin for error is razor-thin. The Cowboys have no room to slip. Every game from here on out is essentially a playoff game - win and stay alive, lose and start thinking about 2026.
Bottom Line
Dallas needs to run the table and hope the Eagles continue to stumble. It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s not hopeless either.
The Cowboys have shown they can hang with elite teams - they’ve beaten the Chiefs, Eagles, and Raiders in less than two weeks. But consistency has been their Achilles’ heel all season.
Now, with the postseason hanging in the balance, it’s time to find out whether this team can string together one final surge. The road is tough, the odds are long, but the opportunity is still there. And in December, that’s all you can ask for.