As the clock hit zero in Detroit, the Cowboys walked off the field with more than just a loss-they walked off with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. A three-game win streak that had sparked real postseason buzz came to a screeching halt. Now sitting at 6-6-1, Dallas finds itself on the outside looking in, clinging to an 11% chance to make the playoffs, according to simulations.
The margin for error? Virtually nonexistent.
One more loss, and those odds dip below 3%. That’s not just a tightrope-they’re walking a wire in high winds with no net.
But if there’s anyone built for this kind of uphill climb, it might just be Brian Schottenheimer.
The first-year head coach has been around the NFL long enough to know that hope doesn’t vanish with one bad Sunday. He’s no stranger to being an underdog.
The son of coaching legend Marty Schottenheimer-one of only eight head coaches in league history with over 200 wins-Brian’s path to the top wasn’t handed to him. Despite the NFL’s long-standing reputation for favoring legacy names and familiar faces, Schottenheimer had to wait his turn, carving his own path through years of being overlooked.
This isn’t the first time he’s been in a situation like this either. Back in 2009, Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator for a Jets team that was left for dead at 4-6.
New York had dropped three straight, and the playoff talk had all but vanished. But head coach Rex Ryan and Schottenheimer didn’t flinch.
They stuck with their game plan, kept the locker room locked in, and the team responded.
What followed was a stunning late-season surge. The Jets won three straight to get above .500, stumbled against the Falcons, then closed out the season by dominating Peyton Manning’s Colts and blanking a 10-win Bengals team. That improbable run landed them the final Wild Card spot.
And they weren’t done.
That Jets team stormed into the playoffs and knocked off the Bengals again, then shocked the Chargers in San Diego, punching a ticket to the AFC Championship Game. All of it happened just weeks after they were written off. Sure, they fell short of the Super Bowl, but the run itself became the stuff of Jets lore.
Fast forward to now, and Schottenheimer is staring down a similar scenario. His Cowboys had strung together three straight wins before the loss in Detroit, and now the math is simple: win out, or watch the postseason from home.
The good news? The schedule isn’t brutal.
But it’s not a cakewalk either. The Vikings and Chargers are still fighting, and while the Giants and Commanders may already be looking toward the draft, divisional road games are rarely easy in December.
Every snap from here on out matters.
Dallas will need some help, yes-but their focus has to stay inward. If they run the table and finish 10-6-1, the playoff simulator gives them a 54% chance to sneak in.
And if the Eagles drop just one more game? That number jumps to over 70%.
Suddenly, the door to January football swings open a little wider.
Here’s some context that should give Cowboys fans a sliver of hope: over the last decade, only two teams have failed to make the playoffs with 10 wins-the Seahawks last season and the Dolphins in 2020. Most years, 10 wins is the golden ticket. And even in those rare cases where it isn’t, you’re talking about a season that came down to the slimmest of margins.
So yes, the odds are long. But they’re not zero. Not yet.
And for Schottenheimer, this is familiar territory. He’s seen a team rise from the ashes before.
He’s helped orchestrate a turnaround that nobody saw coming. Now, he’s trying to do it again-this time in Dallas, with a team that still has fight left in it.
It’s December. The path is narrow.
But the Cowboys still have a shot. And if they can channel that 2009 energy, who knows how far this thing could go?