What’s going on with Matthew Knies and the Blue Jackets?
That was the odd little subplot hanging over Columbus after Tuesday night’s 7-2 rout of the Avalanche. The Blue Jackets piled up offense in all kinds of directions, with 12 different skaters landing on the scoresheet, but Knies wasn’t one of them.
That stands out because his Columbus story started with a bang. After being acquired as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Kirill Marchenko to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Knies exploded in his debut with two goals and an assist. Two nights later, he chipped in another helper and sat at four points through his first two games.
Since then, the production has dried up fast. Knies has just one assist over his last 11 games, even though he’s continued to get every chance to make something happen. The eye test hasn’t exactly screamed “problem,” either.
He’s looked involved with the puck, and at times downright dangerous. His size shows up.
So do his soft hands. There have even been some speed bursts, which is notable for a player built like him.
Interestingly, he’s also seemed most effective when he’s off the top line, away from Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. That could be about mindset, with Knies having to take on more of the play-driving load in those spots.
Or it could just be that he’s getting more touches when he isn’t sharing the puck so often with those two.
Either way, there hasn’t been much sign of a player coasting or checking out. He looks comfortable. He just hasn’t turned that into numbers.
The underlying data backs up a lot of that. According to MoneyPuck.com, only one Blue Jackets forward has a better CORSI% than Knies, and that’s Kent Johnson.
Knies sits at 57%, while Johnson is at 60%. That means Columbus is controlling 57% of the shot share when Knies is on the ice.
He’s also second on the team in expected goals for percentage at 55.8%, again trailing Johnson.
So the puck-possession numbers are there. The play-driving is there. The issue is what happens after that.
Johnson leads the team with seven goals and is tied for the team lead with 13 points. Knies, meanwhile, has only five points in 13 games.
The gap becomes easier to explain when you look at his shot total: just 19 shots on goal. For someone in a prime scoring role, that’s not enough volume.
His shooting percentage hasn’t helped, either. Knies is sitting at 10.5%, well below his career average of 16%. Put those pieces together, and the picture gets pretty clear.
He needs to shoot more. He has the size to get into the dangerous areas and the hands to finish once he gets there.
The tools are there no matter where he’s playing in the lineup. Right now, though, the simplest answer is probably the right one: more shots should lead to more goals.
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