The Columbus Blue Jackets have hit a tricky patch with their restricted free agents, but the real pressure point is clear: get deals done with Jet Greaves and Cole Sillinger before arbitration turns the summer into a mess.
As of now, both Greaves and Sillinger have filed, and the club has about two weeks to reach agreements before an arbitrator sets their next contracts. Adam Fantilli is still in negotiations, but because he doesn’t have enough NHL time, he can’t file for arbitration. That also means he isn’t protected from an offer sheet the way the other two are.
For Columbus, the arbitration filings at least remove the offer-sheet threat for Greaves and Sillinger. But they also set up what could be a brutal stretch next summer, when the Blue Jackets may have to sort out new deals for Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, Greaves, Sillinger, and Fantilli all at once. With salary expectations already shifting after the Philadelphia Flyers’ offer sheet for Anaheim Ducks RFA Leo Carlsson, the market around these negotiations has changed fast.
This is also unfamiliar territory for the franchise. No Blue Jacket has ever actually gone through salary arbitration.
Marc Methot came close twice, filing for arbitration both times, but he signed before the hearing each time. Columbus would love to keep that streak alive.
Sillinger’s case is the cleaner one to read. He understands his value to the team and how much his game fits what the Blue Jackets want to be, but the numbers don’t point toward a massive overpay. A figure like $7 million or more per year seems out of reach based on his production, even with salaries climbing around the league.
If Columbus can hammer out a long-term extension, Sillinger would likely land around $6 million per year for five or six years. If the sides end up in arbitration, AFP Analytics projects something closer to $4 million on a one- or two-year deal.
The Blue Jackets would probably prefer a one-year award if it comes to that, since both players would still be RFAs afterward. A two-year ruling would push both Sillinger and Greaves to unrestricted free agency next summer.
If the club and Sillinger settle before a hearing, the number would likely come in around or just under $6 million AAV, especially with expectations rising after Charlie Coyle’s six-year, $6 million AAV extension in May. That said, Columbus may still view a bridge deal as the more practical route.
Greaves is a different kind of case, but the same basic question applies: pay him now, or keep the term shorter and preserve flexibility?
He outperformed expectations last season, moving from a projected split with Elvis Merzlikins to the clear No. 1 job. He’s expected to start next season too, but the Blue Jackets also have 2025 first-round pick Pyotr Andreyanov on the way. Andreyanov has already drawn comparisons to Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky, two Vezina Trophy-winning Russian goalies, and he’s expected to be ready for North America in the next two or three years.
That makes Greaves a strong candidate for a bridge deal rather than a long-term commitment. Through arbitration, AFP Analytics projects him at $4.3 million for one year. If Columbus chooses to avoid arbitration and work out a bridge contract instead, the number could be closer to $6 million AAV over three or four years.
Fantilli remains the biggest piece in the puzzle. The Blue Jackets are waiting to see what he gets before they move forward on the other two deals, and the Flyers’ offer sheet to Carlsson has only made that decision more urgent. Fantilli could land in a similar range, though the expectation here is that he settles around $10.5 million.
General manager Don Waddell has said repeatedly that the team has built its cap situation to match any offer sheet that comes its way. And the message from Columbus is steady: there’s no ultimatum here, just a process.
The Blue Jackets can still sign either player at any point before the hearings are resolved, as long as both sides agree on a number. They also have to be careful with term and cost so the contracts fit the team’s plan, not just the league’s current mood.
For now, the expectation is that Columbus keeps both players in the fold and avoids letting arbitration run its course. Hearings begin on July 20, and decisions will be handed down by August 3.
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