The Rockies can dream about Jackson Holliday, but the math says this is probably where the conversation ends.
Colorado has every reason to at least make the call. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Baltimore has discussed controllable players such as Holliday, Adley Rutschman and Colton Cowser, and that instantly creates a clean fit on paper for the Rockies.
It also feeds the obvious family angle: Jackson with younger brother Ethan, and another Holliday back in the organization after Matt Holliday’s run in Colorado. It’s a tidy story.
It’s just not a likely deal.
Baltimore entered Thursday at 53-56 and only two games out of the final American League wild-card spot, which gives the Orioles very little incentive to move a core piece unless someone blows them away. That’s the hurdle Colorado runs into immediately.
The Rockies, meanwhile, are staring at a 42-67 record, the worst mark in the Majors, and the deadline should be about turning veteran pieces into younger talent. President of baseball operations Paul DePodesta has said the club will consider moves that “accelerate or broaden” its path toward 90 wins, but only if the deal actually pushes that goal forward.
Holliday would fit that idea in theory. In practice, his price tag makes him a long shot for Colorado.
Baltimore took Holliday with the first overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft, and he’s still only 22. His first two Major League seasons were uneven, but the recent numbers point to a player still moving forward.
Holliday entered Thursday hitting .260/.364/.403 with five home runs and a .767 OPS. He has been even hotter over his last seven games, posting a .522/.571/.609 line, and over his past 15 he’s at .390/.480/.439.
That kind of profile makes him the opposite of a buy-low target. Age, pedigree and recent improvement all work against Colorado here.
If Baltimore were to move him, it would make sense to ask for a young big leaguer or a package built around premium near-ready talent, not distant lottery tickets. For the Rockies, that means the kind of discussion that pulls from the future they’re trying to build, not from the veterans they’re trying to move.
There are still some real questions on Holliday’s game. Statcast has his arm strength in the 15th percentile and his range in the 22nd, and he has minus-two Outs Above Average at second base.
Those numbers leave some room to wonder how much defensive value he can provide there. But the bat, the plate discipline and the age still make those issues easier to live with.
So yes, the family connection makes Jackson Holliday an appealing name for Colorado to chase. But appealing and realistic are not the same thing.
Baltimore is close enough to believe in its own season, and the Rockies should not part with meaningful young talent for a player whose value is tied so heavily to what comes next. Ask the question.
If the price is too high, walk away.
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