The Denver Broncos might not be getting a ton of love from the oddsmakers heading into the 2026 season, but if you’re looking at what really matters-roster strength, coaching, and recent performance-they’re right in the thick of the Super Bowl conversation.
Despite coming off a 14-3 season and earning the AFC’s top seed, one major sportsbook has Denver with just the 12th-best odds to win it all next year. That’s a bit puzzling, especially considering they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game-without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix.
Let’s not forget how that postseason unfolded. Nix, who had been a revelation under Sean Payton in his rookie campaign, fractured his ankle in overtime of the Divisional Round win over Buffalo. That injury forced Denver to roll with Jarrett Stidham in the AFC title game, and while Stidham held his own, a costly fumble gave the Patriots a short field and a crucial touchdown in a game that was already being shaped by the snow and the stakes.
It’s not a stretch to say the outcome could’ve looked very different with Nix under center. And that’s exactly the point Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports made in his way-too-early 2026 NFL power rankings-where he put the Broncos at No. 1.
“Let’s be honest: The Patriots don’t get to the Super Bowl if QB Bo Nix doesn’t fracture his ankle one week earlier,” Vacchiano wrote. That’s not just a hot take-it’s a sentiment echoed across Denver’s sports airwaves and locker rooms alike. The Broncos had the look of a team built for a deep playoff run, and the injury to Nix was a gut punch at the worst possible time.
Still, there’s a lot to be excited about in the Mile High City. Nix is expected to be back healthy, and he’ll rejoin a roster that’s already loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.
Sean Payton, who has revitalized this franchise in short order, remains one of the sharpest minds in the game. The defense is physical and opportunistic, and if Denver can add another reliable target on the outside, this offense could take another leap.
Vacchiano summed it up: “(Nix) will be back with the NFL’s best coach (Sean Payton), a punishing defense, hopefully another receiver, and a battle-tested team that should be hard to beat.”
That’s the formula. A franchise quarterback, a top-tier head coach, a nasty defense, and a group that just went through the fire of the postseason. That’s not a team you want to see in January.
As for the rest of the early top-five, Vacchiano has the Rams, Seahawks, Patriots, and Eagles rounding it out. Within the AFC West, the Broncos are clearly the team to beat. The Chargers come in at No. 9, the Chiefs at No. 11, and the Raiders down at No. 30-highlighting just how wide the gap has grown in the division.
So yeah, Vegas might be sleeping on Denver right now. But if Bo Nix returns to form and this team stays healthy, don’t be surprised if the Broncos are right back in the mix next February-this time with their quarterback leading the charge.