Colorado heads into Halloween week in rough shape, and the numbers are not doing the Buffaloes any favors.
After a 57-24 loss to Oklahoma State, Colorado is on its fifth straight defeat and staring at plenty of questions about Deion Sanders’ future in Boulder. The scoreboard has been ugly enough. The predictive metrics have only piled on.
ESPN’s Football Power Index now has Colorado sitting at the bottom of the Big 12 at 16th overall. The Buffaloes carry a -2.0 FPI rating and rank 75th nationally.
ESPN projects Colorado to finish somewhere between 3.4 and 8.6, and the path to reach eight wins is as narrow as it gets: the Buffaloes would have to win out, starting with the Oct. 31 meeting with Kansas State. ESPN gives them just a 0.2 percent chance to do that.
The bowl picture is even bleaker. Colorado’s chance to get to six wins sits at 2.9 percent, and the Buffaloes are listed at 0.0 for winning the Big 12, making the College Football Playoff, reaching the national title game or claiming the championship.
Kansas State arrives with a much healthier record at 4-3, though the Wildcats have their own blemishes in conference play. All three of their losses have come in the Big 12, against Cincinnati, Houston and most recently Arizona State. Their lone league win came in a 35-24 victory over Kansas.
The Wildcats’ FPI is far better than Colorado’s at 5.7, and ESPN projects Kansas State at 6.4 to 5.6. Still, their odds of running the table are only 2.6 percent. The bigger number for KSU is 77.6 percent, which is ESPN’s estimate for the Wildcats getting to six wins and becoming bowl eligible.
Colorado is also about to see another quarterback who can hurt defenses in multiple ways. The Buffaloes have already dealt with dual-threat options like Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles, Texas Tech’s Will Hammond, Utah’s Devon Dampier and, on Oct. 24, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker.
Kansas State’s Avery Johnson comes in with 13 total touchdowns, including 10 through the air. He also leads the Wildcats on the ground with 462 rushing yards and a 9.1 yards-per-carry average, and he has already posted two 100-yard rushing games, going for 152 against Tulane and 132 against Kansas.
The Wildcats have more than one weapon in the backfield, too. Rodney Fields has 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while Joe Jackson has added 371 yards. Through the air, Jaron Tibbs leads Kansas State with 34 catches for 325 yards and four scores, and Josh Manning has 26 receptions for 254 yards and two touchdowns.
FanDuel lists Kansas State as a 1.5-point favorite. Colorado has dropped three of the last four meetings in the series, though the Buffaloes still own a 45-22-1 edge overall against the Wildcats.
In Other News...
Deion Sanders Doubles Down As Latest Buffs Backlash Builds
Deion Sanders spent part of this week trying to clean up a comment that quickly took on a life of its own, and the Colorado coach made clear he was not actually offering anybody money to stop talking about him. He said the $50,000 line was meant as a joke about someone profiting off his name and brand, but once it landed in the wider conversation, it became another flashpoint around a program that rarely goes long without one.
The remark resurfaced again at his weekly news conference before Colorado hosts Kansas State, where Sanders stuck to the same message: he does not pay people to avoid criticism, and he was misinterpreted. The larger point sounded familiar from him, too, because criticism has followed much of his career and he said he remains unapologetic about what he says and does. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado's New Frontcourt Has To Fix What Sank The Buffs
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Eric Jacobsen is part of that conversation too, even if the first-year forward is still easing his way back from a torn ACL. His adjustment to the physicality of Big 12 play is still underway, which makes the early-season frontcourt rotation even more interesting for Colorado. However the minutes shake out, the Buffs need their new pieces to help stabilize a defense that has to be better if the season is going to go anywhere. [Read more 🡒]
Colorados First Big 12 Win May Hinge On One Kansas State Decision
Colorados search for its first Big 12 win could end up tied to one decision in Manhattan, where Kansas State is still sorting through the health of quarterback Avery Johnson. The Buffaloes already know the challenge he presents when hes available: he drives the Wildcats offense as both their top passer and their top runner, which makes him the kind of dual threat that can stress a defense on every snap.
Colorados plan, at least in theory, is to keep Johnson bottled up in the pocket and force him to win with his arm. But Kansas State has been dealing with quarterback injuries beyond Johnson, and even if he is cleared to play, theres no guarantee hell look or play the same way he normally does. For a Colorado defense trying to steady itself in conference play, the difference between an injured Johnson and no Johnson at all could shape the whole afternoon. [Read more 🡒]