Colorado’s margin for error has already shrunk to almost nothing.
After a 41-7 loss to Northwestern, the Buffaloes didn’t just give up their perfect start. They walked into a much tighter bowl picture, one that could leave Saturday’s Big 12 opener at Baylor as a game they have to take.
Colorado is 2-1 and still needs four more wins to get bowl eligible. The catch is obvious: the schedule doesn’t seem to offer a soft landing anymore.
Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona State and Houston all look like likely underdog spots for the Buffaloes. If those five games go the way they appear on paper, then Colorado would need to run the table against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and UCF just to reach 6-6.
That makes Waco the starting point for the narrowest route left.
The issue is that even the games that once looked favorable are getting harder to circle. Baylor is 2-1 and nearly knocked off Auburn, falling by just one point.
Cincinnati is 3-0, though it had to rally from a 28-7 halftime hole to beat Miami of Ohio. UCF sits at 2-1 and is trying to show progress after finishing 5-7 in Scott Frost’s first season back.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, no longer looks like the easy win it seemed to be in the offseason. The Cowboys went 1-11 a year ago and entered 2026 with Eric Morris leading the rebuild, but they’ve already sped things up by upsetting Oregon 39-31 and then blanking Murray State 59-0.
Colorado’s four most manageable remaining opponents are a combined 9-3. That means the Buffaloes may have to sweep all four.
So Baylor starts to feel less like a conference opener and more like a season checkpoint. If Colorado loses in Waco and then falls in the five games where it appears to be outmatched, the ceiling drops to five wins even if it beats Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and UCF.
There’s a bigger concern hovering over all of this, too: what the season says about Deion Sanders’ program in Year 4.
Colorado went 9-3 in the 2024 regular season and reached the Alamo Bowl. At that point, the Buffaloes looked at least on level footing with Texas Tech, Utah and Houston, close with Kansas State and within range of Arizona State.
Now, less than two years later, all five of those programs appear to be in a better place than Colorado.
That’s the uncomfortable part. Sanders has had multiple recruiting classes, a heavy transfer-portal push, massive national attention and real institutional backing. Even so, several Big 12 teams have either built, bounced back or held steady more effectively.
If Colorado misses a bowl, it would mean the program has failed to get there in three of Sanders’ four seasons. The 2024 run would start to look less like the beginning of something and more like a one-year surge driven by Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
The best path now is simple, even if it isn’t easy: get to five wins before the final two games. That would leave room to split against Cincinnati and UCF. Starting 4-4, though, would make the last two Saturdays far more dangerous, especially with Scott Satterfield potentially coaching to keep his job at Cincinnati and UCF still trying to move forward after 5-7.
Colorado still controls its bowl fate. But after Northwestern, that road is shorter, steeper and much less forgiving - and it starts Saturday at Baylor.
In Other News...
Deion Sanders Is Already Facing A Colorado Problem Fans Will Hate
The mood around Colorado has shifted quickly after the 41-7 loss to Northwestern, and Deion Sanders wasted little time addressing what bothered him most. Beyond the scoreboard, Sanders said he was furious with the way his players carried themselves afterward, calling out the laughing and joking he saw after a blowout that dropped the Buffaloes to 2-1.
As the team turns toward Big 12 play, the frustration is about more than one bad afternoon. Sanders has already made it clear he wants a sharper standard in how Colorado responds to adversity, and the coming weeks will show whether that message lands before the conference schedule starts to pile on the pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado's Northwestern Disaster Exposed A Problem Buffs Fans Can't Ignore
Saturdays 41-7 loss to Northwestern gave Colorado far more to sort through than a bad final score. The Buffaloes were outplayed in the most basic parts of the game, from tackling to defensive execution to the overall edge they brought to the field, and the result was a performance that left little room for excuses. Northwestern controlled the line of scrimmage on the ground and found plenty of room after the catch, while Colorado spent much of the afternoon chasing the game.
The larger concern for the Buffaloes is that the on-field issues came with an ugly off-field moment attached. A video of linebacker Tyler Martinez making disparaging remarks about the opposing stadium quickly made the rounds, adding another layer of unwanted attention to a loss already heavy on the field. For a team trying to establish consistency and credibility, it was the kind of afternoon that raises questions well beyond one bad September result. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Kept Making The Same Costly Mistakes In Ugly Loss
Colorado came out with enough early energy to suggest it might make a game of it against Northwestern, but the promise faded quickly once the mistakes started piling up. Turnovers and penalties kept undercutting any rhythm on offense, and what could have been a competitive opening stretch instead turned into a lopsided afternoon as the Buffaloes repeatedly squandered chances to build momentum.
Aidan Chiles and the Wildcats made sure those missed opportunities mattered. Chiles completed 16 of 19 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns as Northwestern seized control with a 21-0 halftime lead, and Colorado never found a way to recover from the self-inflicted damage. The Buffaloes showed flashes early, but the same costly errors kept showing up, leaving them with an ugly 41-7 loss and plenty to clean up. [Read more 🡒]