Colorado comes home to Folsom Field on Saturday with ESPN’s numbers painting a lopsided picture for its matchup with Weber State.
After grinding out a 14-13 road win over Georgia Tech to open the season, the Buffaloes are now projected by ESPN’s FPI to handle a very different kind of challenge. The network’s matchup predictor gives Colorado a 98 percent chance to beat the Wildcats, while Weber State is listed at 2 percent.
That projection speaks to the gap the model sees between the two teams, but it is not the same as a betting line. ESPN’s forecast is about who wins the game, not whether Colorado covers the 30.5-point spread currently listed by FanDuel.
The Buffaloes needed a defensive play to escape Week 1, and that came from Boo Carter, whose late field goal block helped preserve the win for Deion Sanders’ revamped team. Saturday should offer a different test altogether, with Colorado facing an FCS opponent at home instead of a Power Four team on the road.
For the Buffaloes, the matchup also opens the door to finding more rhythm on offense. At the same time, they’ll want to make sure Weber State doesn’t turn this into a tight game late.
The Wildcats arrive at 1-1 after beating Northern Colorado 30-29 to start the year and then falling to Southern Utah. Even with the heavy ESPN projection leaning Colorado’s way, Weber State has already shown it can score in a close one.
From a betting standpoint, the spread looks more intriguing than the moneyline, especially if Colorado’s price doesn’t offer much return. The over/under is set at 60.5 by FanDuel, which adds another layer to a game that already looks heavily tilted toward the Buffaloes. Colorado scored 14 points in its opener, while Weber State put up 30 in its first game.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor leaves little doubt about the model’s view of Saturday’s game: it is a very pro-Colorado forecast.
In Other News...
Colorado Suddenly Faces A Very Different Test In Home Opener
Weber States trip to Colorado now comes with a different kind of uncertainty after starting quarterback Devin Brown was expected to miss the game with a dislocated right pinkie finger. Brown was injured in the season opener, and the Wildcats are likely to turn again to freshman Nate Dahle, who is in line to make his second straight start against a Buffaloes team that will have to adjust its preparation accordingly.
Eric Kjar said he had updates on Browns status and made clear he has confidence in Dahle to handle the assignment. For Colorado, the change only adds another layer to a home opener that was already drawing attention, since a young quarterback being asked to settle in on the road can alter the feel of a game before it even begins. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado's Upset Win Just Brought Immediate Big 12 Recognition
Colorados upset win over Georgia Tech didnt just change the mood around the program, it quickly put the Buffaloes in the league spotlight. The Big 12 handed out three weekly football honors from the performance, with Lamont Lester Jr. earning Co-Defensive Player of the Week, Boo Carter taking Co-Special Teams Player of the Week and Colorados defensive line getting Defensive Line of the Week recognition.
For a team looking to prove it belongs in bigger conversations, the timing matters as much as the hardware. Individual awards are nice, but the real value is what they suggest about how Colorado won: disruptive play up front, impact moments on special teams and enough across-the-board execution to get the leagues attention right after a statement victory. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado May Have Found A New Pass Rush Problem For Opponents
Lamont Lester Jr. gave Colorado a much-needed jolt off the edge in its recent 14-13 win over Georgia Tech, turning in a three-sack performance that stood out in a game decided by the slimmest of margins. The Buffaloes have spent plenty of time looking for defensive answers under Deion Sanders, and Lesters emergence offered one in a hurry, especially from a player who came to Boulder with a background at Monmouth and quickly fit the tone the staff wants.
For Colorado, the bigger question now is whether this was a one-game burst or the start of a real pass-rush problem for opponents. Lester talked about the defense playing fast, smart and with relentless effort under Sanders and defensive coordinator Chris Marve, and that mindset will be tested again as teams start planning for him. If the Buffaloes can keep getting that kind of pressure off the edge, they may have found a new way to make life uncomfortable for opposing quarterbacks. [Read more 🡒]