Colorado’s path to a bowl game is still alive, but the wiggle room is disappearing fast.
With the bye week here, the Buffaloes sit at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big 12, and they still need four wins in their final seven games to get to six and become bowl eligible. The problem is the remaining slate is loaded. Colorado’s last seven opponents are a combined 23-8, three are ranked, and the Buffs have dropped three in a row.
That leaves a pretty clear blueprint: handle the four unranked teams on the schedule - Kansas State, Arizona State, Cincinnati and UCF - and bowl hopes stay on track without needing a major upset. Miss on one of those, and Colorado would likely have to beat one of the ranked teams, something it could not do against No. 12 Texas Tech.
Under Deion Sanders, Colorado is 5-6 against the seven teams still ahead. And when you sort the games by difficulty, the list starts to tell the story of just how tight the margin is.
UCF on Nov. 28 at Folsom Field looks like the best remaining shot. The Knights are 3-2 and 1-1, and their offense has been the least productive of any team left on Colorado’s schedule at 350.8 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been out with a hamstring injury, so Keyonte Jenkins has taken over. Colorado already beat UCF 48-21 in Orlando in 2024, and now the Buffs get the rematch at home.
The catch is that UCF’s defense has already forced 10 turnovers in five games.
Arizona State, which comes to Tempe on Nov. 7, also sits in the more favorable tier. The Sun Devils are 2-2 and 1-1, and they’ve allowed 355.3 yards per game while coughing it up eight times in four games.
Baylor, which beat Colorado 23-13, rolled Arizona State 55-19 on Saturday. Still, the Sun Devils can move the ball through the air.
Reed Harris leads the Big 12 with 499 receiving yards and shares the league lead in touchdown catches with five alongside Colorado’s Joseph Williams. Former Buff Omarion Miller is in the mix too, with 25 catches for 234 yards and two touchdowns after posting 808 receiving yards and eight scores for Colorado last season.
Arizona State also beat Colorado 42-17 in Boulder last year.
Kansas State, on Oct. 31 in Boulder, feels like a true toss-up. The Wildcats are 3-1 and 0-1, and they’ve won the last two meetings.
Their pass defense has been stingy, allowing just 106.3 yards per game through the air. Colorado’s offense leans on the run, though, and K-State has been more vulnerable there, giving up 139.8 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry.
Quarterback Avery Johnson has added 291 rushing yards of his own at 9.7 yards a pop. Kansas State lost its Big 12 opener 31-26 at Cincinnati, which gives Colorado a little help from the home-field edge.
The trip to Cincinnati on Nov. 21 is another game that can go either way. The Bearcats are 4-1 and 1-1 after beating Kansas State and then falling 34-7 at Arizona on Saturday.
Their run defense has given up 141.6 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry, which gives Colorado a lane. But Cincinnati has protected the football almost flawlessly, turning it over just twice all season, and quarterback JC French has not thrown an interception in 123 attempts.
Colorado has never played there.
Then come the long shots.
At Oklahoma State on Oct. 24, the No. 18 Cowboys are 3-1 and 1-0 after beating then-No.
6 Oregon in week two. Drew Mestemaker leads the Big 12 with 317.8 passing yards per game, and Oklahoma State has also been loose with the ball, giving it away eight times in four games.
Its defense has allowed 158.8 rushing yards per game. Colorado did beat the Cowboys 52-0 the last time they met, in 2024.
Houston visits Folsom Field on Nov. 13, and the No. 22 Cougars are 4-1 and 1-1 after losing by two at Texas Tech.
Their defense has been especially tough against the run, holding opponents to 65.4 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry. Conner Weigman has thrown 11 touchdown passes with one interception.
Houston won 36-20 last season.
The toughest assignment of all comes first, when No. 12 Utah arrives at Folsom Field on Oct.
- The Utes are 4-0 and 1-0, and they’ve outgained opponents by 232.8 yards per game.
They’re averaging 225.8 yards of offense while allowing just 84.0 rushing yards per game, and opponents are completing only 46.9% of their passes. Colorado beat Utah 49-24 in Boulder in 2024, but the Buffs were hammered 53-7 in Salt Lake City last season.
So yes, six wins is still possible. But the math keeps getting harsher, and the margin for error is razor-thin.
Even the friendliest route sends Colorado to Tempe and Cincinnati, where it has lost seven straight Big 12 road games. And with 11 turnovers in five games, the Buffs simply do not have much room to survive mistakes.
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