ESPN’s Power Football Index doesn’t exactly paint a rosy picture for Colorado, but it does leave the Buffaloes with a path to a bowl.
The FPI slots Colorado at No. 10 in the Big 12 and No. 45 nationally, with a rating of 4.5. That projection breaks the Buffs down game by game, and the early read is clear: the margin for error is thin.
Colorado opens on the road against Georgia Tech, a tricky place to start after the Yellow Jackets beat the Buffs 27-10 in Boulder to open the 2025 season. Colorado didn’t win a road game in 2025, and the FPI gives them a 41.5 percent chance to win this one.
The home opener against Weber State looks like the easiest game on the slate by a wide margin. Colorado has a 97.7 percent chance to beat the FCS opponent, and anything less would be a major setback.
The non-conference schedule still has another test, with a road trip to Northwestern. The Wildcats finished 7-6 last season and 4-5 in the Big Ten, and the FPI gives Northwestern the slight edge.
Conference play starts with one of the toughest assignments on the schedule: a road game at Baylor. Per the FPI, that’s the hardest game Colorado faces to that point.
Texas Tech, the defending Big 12 champion and the current favorite to repeat, comes to Folsom Field next. Even at home, Colorado is viewed as a long shot in that matchup.
The Buffs do get a favorable number when Utah visits Boulder. Utah remains one of the more consistent programs around, though it will have a new head coach this season.
Road games at Oklahoma State and Arizona State both lean against Colorado. Oklahoma State went winless in 2025 but completely changed its coaching staff, while Arizona State won the Big 12 in 2024 before slipping a bit in 2025.
Houston is projected to be one of the stronger teams in the league, but the FPI sees that one as close to a toss-up with Colorado at home.
Cincinnati rounds out the conference slate, and the FPI says that’s Colorado’s best shot at a Big 12 win. The Buffs will need that one if they want to get to bowl eligibility.
Taken together, the projection has Colorado just barely reaching a bowl game. That’s a better outlook than the one from DraftKings Sportsbook, which lists Colorado’s win total at 4.5. The under is favored at -160, while the over sits at +134.
Colorado is coming off a 3-9 season in 2025 and will try to get back to the postseason under Deion Sanders in 2026.
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Boo Carter Just Got Pulled Into A Colorado Ranking Debate
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One Colorado Holdover Just Became A Perfect Deion Sanders Story
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Finneseths path also says something about the new look of this roster, where persistence can still matter as much as pedigree. He has already become a more visible part of the Buffaloes plans, and the next question is how far that trajectory can go now that he has a scholarship and a coach clearly willing to keep investing in him. [Read more 🡒]