Computer models may not decide games, but they sure know how to react to them. ESPN’s FPI took a fresh swing at the country after Week 7, and the latest update delivered a new No. 1 along with a few sharp movers in both directions across the power four.
Auburn was the week’s biggest gainer, and it’s easy to see why. The Tigers went on the road and knocked off No.
1 Georgia 27-24, overcoming a 14-0 deficit by ripping off 24 straight points and hanging on from there. Auburn was nearly a three-touchdown underdog, but FPI loved the result enough to give the Tigers a 7.0% chance to still make the College Football Playoff.
Even more eye-catching, Auburn now sits at a 96.2% shot to reach six wins, which points toward a bowl bid looking increasingly likely.
Boston College also climbed after pulling an upset, though the Eagles remain in a rough spot overall. BC beat Pittsburgh 27-21 after spotting the Panthers the first 12 points, then answering with the next 21. The win moved the Eagles up in the rankings, but the bigger picture is still grim: at 3-3, FPI says Boston College has only a 10.6% chance to get to six wins.
Colorado managed one of the more unusual moves of the week: a significant rise despite a loss. The Buffaloes stayed close to Utah before falling 27-24, yet the computer still rewarded them with a noticeable jump. At 2-4, Colorado’s 13.7% chance of reaching six wins is the lowest in the Big 12.
Cal took the opposite hit. A 41-7 home loss to Wake Forest sent the Bears sliding hard, leaving them in the ACC basement with only Stanford below them. Sitting at 3-4, Cal now has just a 14.3% chance of finishing with six wins and getting to a bowl.
Mississippi State’s numbers also took a beating after LSU rolled to a 31-0 win. With its two offensive weapons out because of injury, State was never in it, and the setback came with a steep FPI drop. Even so, the Bulldogs still have a 3.5% chance to reach the CFP and a 92.4% chance of getting to six wins and bowl eligibility.
Ole Miss did damage of its own to the Tigers’ outlook, as a 31-3 road loss stripped away a lot of momentum from their CFP hopes. The loss dropped them to a 3.7% chance of making the playoff, though FPI still gives them a 95.7% shot at a bowl berth.
In Other News...
Deion Sanders Left Colorado Fans With One Bigger Question
Colorados latest outing had the feel of a turning point for much of the night, even if it ended with another loss. The Buffaloes erased a 13-0 halftime deficit against Utah, grabbed the lead in the third quarter and briefly had the momentum before the game slipped away, leaving them with a four-game losing streak and another close result to sort through.
Deion Sanders and several players spoke afterward about the performance and where the team goes from here, but the bigger question around Boulder is still the same one hanging over the season. Colorado now turns to Oklahoma State next, a matchup that comes with its own challenge, and Sanders made it clear he is still waiting to see what this group can become as the schedule rolls on. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Just Exposed A Concern Hanging Over Utahs Big Stage
ESPNs College GameDay is headed back to Utah on October 24, setting the stage for an undefeated Utes team to welcome Houston into one of the Big 12s bigger early-season spots. Utah has rattled off 12 straight wins and has looked the part of a program built for this kind of spotlight, but the last outing also served as a reminder that even the most polished teams can be pushed when the margin tightens late.
The Colorado game showed some defensive vulnerability the Utes will want cleaned up before the national attention arrives again. Utahs schedule still has enough weight to keep the conversation lively, but the immediate focus is on handling Houston with a little more control than it needed the previous week, especially with the kind of stage GameDay tends to amplify. [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Showed Progress But One Late Problem Changed Everything
Colorados loss to Utah came with a few bright spots on defense, even in a game that left the Buffaloes searching for answers. Naeten Mitchell, Randon Fontenette and Gideon Lampron all showed up in ways Colorado can build on, giving the unit some fight and disruption even as the scoreboard leaned the wrong direction.
The offense, though, never found the same rhythm, and the late-game sequence only sharpened the frustration. Isaac Wilson was left to reckon with a costly second-half turnover and the kind of ending that can swing a game in an instant, while Micah Welchs workload was surprisingly limited as JaQuail Smith took on the heavier rushing load. For a team trying to turn progress into a win, the margin for error disappeared when Colorado needed clean execution most. [Read more 🡒]