Kenny Dillingham isn’t exactly treating Colorado like a soft landing spot.
The Arizona State coach said his Sun Devils are staring at NFL talent on the Buffaloes’ roster, and the numbers from ESPN’s Football Power Index back up the idea that this matchup is tighter than Colorado’s 3-5 record might suggest. Ahead of the Nov. 7 meeting, the FPI paints a messy but intriguing picture for both teams.
Colorado’s most immediate problem is the long shot at a perfect finish. Even after snapping a five-game losing streak with an emotional 27-24 overtime win over Kansas State on Halloween, the Buffaloes have just a 1.2 percent chance of winning out and reaching 7-5.
But the more realistic path got a little brighter. ESPN’s model now gives Colorado an 11.1 percent chance of finishing 6-6, which would give Deion Sanders only his second bowl-eligible season in Boulder. That possibility is still alive because the Buffaloes survived against the Wildcats and because the schedule has started to tilt in their favor.
Colorado spent the first eight games running through a brutal stretch that included three ranked opponents before Halloween: Northwestern, which had been No. 20; Texas Tech, which was No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings released Nov. 3; and Utah, which checked in at No. 3 in the CFP.
Oklahoma State was also ranked briefly early in 2026, though it was unranked by the time Colorado played it on Oct. 24.
Now the road looks less punishing. The only ranked opponent left on Colorado’s schedule is No.
17 Houston, and that game comes to Folsom Field on Nov. 13.
Arizona State, meanwhile, is hardly in a comfortable spot either. The Sun Devils are 4-4 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play, and they’re not exactly projected to sprint to the finish line.
ESPN’s FPI gives ASU only a 1.4 percent chance to win out. Still, the Sun Devils have a much better shot at bowl eligibility than Colorado does, with a 46.7 percent chance of reaching six wins.
They need two more victories to lock that up.
The conference numbers help explain why the models see these two teams in a similar neighborhood. Colorado sits 73rd overall in FPI and has the Big 12’s worst ranking among conference teams. Arizona State is not far ahead, landing 65th overall and 15th out of 16 in the league.
That’s a notable shift for a program that surged immediately after moving into the Big 12. Dillingham guided ASU to the conference title in its first season in 2024, which also came in his second year leading the program. Now both Dillingham and Sanders are coaching teams trying to claw their way to bowl eligibility, and the FPI suggests the gap between them is smaller than the records might first indicate.
In Other News...
Colorado Cross Country Is Sending A Message The Big 12 Felt
Colorados cross country program just turned a strong conference meet into a clear statement about where it stands in the Big 12. Seven Buffaloes were named to the 2026 All-Big 12 Team after the men won the conference championship and the women finished fourth, giving the program a rare double dose of postseason recognition and putting a spotlight on the depth that carried both squads through the meet.
Dominic Serem set the tone for the men with a second-place finish as Colorado piled up 36 points to take the title, while Sheylah Kurgat led the women with an eighth-place run in their fourth-place effort. The honors reflect more than one good day, though, and they leave the bigger question hanging over Boulder: how far can this group push once the championship stage gets even more crowded? [Read more 🡒]
Colorado Recruiting Stability Faces Its Biggest Test Yet
Colorados rough fall has naturally stirred up bigger questions around Deion Sanders and the direction of the program, but the recruiting picture has held up better than the on-field record might suggest. Even through a five-game losing streak, the Buffaloes have managed to keep their 2027 class largely intact, a notable sign of stability for a program that has been under the spotlight all season.
The early signing period is still ahead, and that is where the real pressure begins for any class trying to stay together through a turbulent stretch. Sanders has continued to stay in touch with recruits, and the confidence inside the program remains strong, but the next few weeks will say plenty about whether Colorado can keep that momentum from unraveling. [Read more 🡒]
Colorados Bowl Push Runs Through A Dangerous Arizona State Matchup
Colorado finally got the breakthrough it had been chasing in Big 12 play, outlasting Kansas State in overtime for its first conference win of the season. Now the Buffaloes have a chance to turn that momentum into something more meaningful as they head into a matchup with Arizona State, a game that could help keep their bowl hopes moving in the right direction.
The challenge starts with the Sun Devils passing game, where Reed Harris has emerged as the central threat and the primary target on most snaps. Colorados defense knows it cannot let him dictate the game, so the plan is to crowd him with multiple defenders and make life harder on the quarterback, a task that will go a long way toward determining whether the Buffaloes can keep building on last weeks result. [Read more 🡒]