The Colorado Avalanche got a surprise scoring jolt from Parker Kelly last season, and that’s exactly why his slow start this year stands out.
Kelly finished with 21 goals in 82 games a year ago, a number that changed the conversation around the 27-year-old almost overnight. But through 12 games this season, he has just one goal and five points. That puts him on a seven-goal pace over 84 games, a sharp drop from the breakout year that raised expectations in Colorado.
For the Avalanche, the bigger issue is that the depth scoring hasn’t been there often enough. That puts more weight on the bottom six, and Kelly is one of the players who now feels that pressure most.
Sunday night offered little relief. Kelly skated 12:35 over 16 shifts, finished without a shot on goal, and tried to add some spark by dropping the gloves with Jayden Struble in the second period.
It didn’t change the outcome.
There’s also a reason the numbers feel familiar. Before last season, Kelly’s highest goal total in a season was eight.
Right now, he is tracking toward that range again. That doesn’t make him a disappointment by itself.
It does suggest last year may have been the outlier, the kind of career spike some depth players produce before settling back into their usual production.
Still, Colorado has every reason to want more from him now that he’s shown what he can do. If Kelly keeps struggling to finish, the Avalanche will have to look for ways to make up for what he isn’t giving them offensively.
It’s not a panic situation yet. But the longer Kelly stays off the scoresheet, the harder it gets to ignore.
In Other News...
Avalanche May Be Heading Toward A Brent Burns Decision
Brent Burns has settled into a third-pairing role for the Avalanche, but the fit has not looked especially smooth. His recent game showed a negative Wins Above Replacement rating, and the underlying numbers have not helped his case either, with a negative relative expected goals for mark adding to the concern around his impact at even strength.
Still, Colorado does not appear eager to take him out of the lineup, and the reason is bigger than one rough night or even a short stretch of limited ice time. Burns Ironman streak remains a factor the Avalanche have to weigh as they try to sort out their blue-line rotation and manage fatigue, leaving the team with a delicate balancing act every time it sets its pairings. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Forward Shakeup After Ugly Loss Raises A Bigger Lineup Question
After an ugly loss, the Avalanche wasted little time changing up their forward group, and the most notable shift came with Nazem Kadri sliding down to third-line center while Fedor Svechkov was bumped to the fourth line. The move gave Colorado a different look in the middle of the lineup, while Nic Roy also returned to practice and appeared on track to be available for the next game after dealing with an upper-body injury. Roy said he is healthy and was a full participant, which at least gives Jared Bednar another option as he searches for a better blend up front.
The reshuffle speaks to a bigger question the Avalanche have been circling for a while: how to find the right combination through the middle without sacrificing balance elsewhere. Bednar has been willing to tinker after rough nights, and this one felt like a clear sign that nothing is being treated as fixed. With Roy back in the mix and Kadri moved to a different role, Colorado now has to see whether the new alignment can steady a group that needs a cleaner answer soon. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Start Is Hiding A Concern Fans Can't Ignore
The early results have been good enough for the Avalanche to stay in the conversation, but the start has not come without some warning signs. At 6-5-1 through 12 games, Colorado has gotten useful depth from its third line, with Jaden Schwartz, Fedor Svechkov and TJ Hughes each chipping in at least twice, a welcome sign for a group that needs scoring beyond its top names.
Still, the bigger picture is a little less comfortable than the record suggests. Colorados expected goals percentage has slipped from where it has been in past seasons, and the defensive structure has not looked as steady, which has led analytics to paint a more cautious view of how sustainable this start really is. For a team that expects to be judged by more than just the standings, the next stretch will say a lot about whether the wins are built to last. [Read more 🡒]