Through 12 games, the Colorado Avalanche are sitting at 6-5-1, and the first month-plus has already produced a little of everything: encouraging signs, uneven stretches and a few alarms worth watching as the schedule moves on.
One of the clearest bright spots has been the third line. Jaden Schwartz, Fedor Svechkov and TJ Hughes have given Colorado something it has been chasing for a while - a unit with real chemistry, an identity and actual production. Each of the three has scored at least twice, and the group has been a welcome development in a season that has otherwise been mixed.
TJ Hughes, in particular, drew strong praise as the one who has stood out most among the trio. He has settled in well, and his play has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the early going.
Artturi Lehkonen has been the team’s biggest individual spark. He has 10 goals in 12 games and has ridden a seven-game point streak, a run that has been hard to miss.
He has scored 10 goals on 22 shots, which Jackie noted is a 45.5 shooting percentage. That kind of finish has helped cover up some of the team’s rougher edges.
Nathan MacKinnon also earned mention, with 21 points putting him in the top five in league scoring, even if Jackie said he has not played his best hockey yet.
Still, the bigger-picture numbers paint a more uneasy picture. Colorado’s expected goals rate sits at 47.24%, which ranks 21st in the league.
For a team that has spent years leaning on strong underlying results, that is a significant change. The Avs also lead the league in shooting percentage at 14.23%, with 39 goals on 26 expected at 5-on-5.
That gap suggests some of the early offense is being propped up by finishing that is unlikely to last.
The defensive side has its own warning signs. Colorado has allowed 24 goals on 29 expected against, meaning the results have actually been a little better than the process at times.
That combination has created a PDO of 1.054, second-highest in the NHL. The message from the roundtable was clear: the Avalanche have been fortunate to be where they are, and the underlying play needs to improve, not just the mood around the team.
The losses themselves are not being treated as full-blown crisis material yet, but a couple have raised eyebrows. The defeats to Nashville and Philadelphia stood out because of the way Colorado played once it fell behind multiple goals.
In those games, there was a lack of urgency and not much sign of a push to claw back in. Against Nashville, last night’s game got especially concerning late, with the Predators on the second night of a back-to-back and still threatening to double Colorado up in shots while leading by multiple goals.
Even so, nobody sounded ready to sound the alarm just yet. The season is only 12 games old, and there was a sense that a talented roster like this can still straighten itself out.
One view was that the team is acting like a group that has not fully committed to the regular season’s demands just yet, but that a focus point will arrive by the new year. Another was that if Colorado is going to have to grind a little for a playoff spot, that might not be the worst thing.
But there was also a blunt caveat: the roster changes have created cracks, and those cracks are already showing.
Looking ahead, the rematch with the Toronto Maple Leafs in a couple of weeks was the game Jackie circled most. Colorado’s previous showing against Toronto at Ball Arena was not one of its best, and the expectation is that a quick rematch could produce a different result. How the Avalanche handle Toronto’s star players will be the key detail to watch.
Jess, meanwhile, is most interested in Colorado’s games against the St. Louis Blues on December 29 and the Seattle Kraken on January 8, both of which will be in person when she is back in Colorado for the holidays.
In Other News...
Avalanche May Be Heading Toward A Brent Burns Decision
Brent Burns has settled into a third-pairing role for the Avalanche, but the fit has not looked especially smooth. His recent game showed a negative Wins Above Replacement rating, and the underlying numbers have not helped his case either, with a negative relative expected goals for mark adding to the concern around his impact at even strength.
Still, Colorado does not appear eager to take him out of the lineup, and the reason is bigger than one rough night or even a short stretch of limited ice time. Burns Ironman streak remains a factor the Avalanche have to weigh as they try to sort out their blue-line rotation and manage fatigue, leaving the team with a delicate balancing act every time it sets its pairings. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Forward Shakeup After Ugly Loss Raises A Bigger Lineup Question
After an ugly loss, the Avalanche wasted little time changing up their forward group, and the most notable shift came with Nazem Kadri sliding down to third-line center while Fedor Svechkov was bumped to the fourth line. The move gave Colorado a different look in the middle of the lineup, while Nic Roy also returned to practice and appeared on track to be available for the next game after dealing with an upper-body injury. Roy said he is healthy and was a full participant, which at least gives Jared Bednar another option as he searches for a better blend up front.
The reshuffle speaks to a bigger question the Avalanche have been circling for a while: how to find the right combination through the middle without sacrificing balance elsewhere. Bednar has been willing to tinker after rough nights, and this one felt like a clear sign that nothing is being treated as fixed. With Roy back in the mix and Kadri moved to a different role, Colorado now has to see whether the new alignment can steady a group that needs a cleaner answer soon. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Suddenly Have A Parker Kelly Problem To Watch
Parker Kelly was one of the more useful surprises in Colorados depth mix last season, when his 21-goal breakout gave the Avalanche an unexpected scoring boost and raised the bar for what he might bring in a full follow-up year. Through 12 games this season, though, the production has been far quieter, with one goal and five points leaving the Avalanche to wonder whether last year was the start of a new level or a peak that may be hard to revisit.
For a team that leans on depth scoring to make the rest of its attack work, Kellys line becomes a small but important watch point. If his output settles back closer to the level he had shown earlier in his career, Colorado loses a layer of offense it was hoping to count on, and that puts a little more pressure on the rest of the supporting cast to pick up the slack. [Read more 🡒]