The Colorado Avalanche get the Dallas Stars at Ball Arena tonight, and the setup is exactly the kind of thing that can shape a prop card: one team pushing pace, the other trying to drag the game into a tighter, slower grind.
Colorado has opened 4-2 and done it with real offensive force. The Avs have piled up 29 goals, are averaging 31.17 shots per game, and have cashed in on 23.8 percent of their power-play chances.
Dallas, meanwhile, arrives at 2-3-1 with a far different look. The Stars have scored 13 goals in six games, but they’ve also kept things bottled up defensively, allowing just 10 goals overall - including 3 from the Avs last night.
That clash of styles is the whole story for bettors. Colorado wants volume.
Dallas wants structure. And on the second night of a back-to-back, special teams and shot selection figure to matter a lot.
Brent Burns Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100) makes sense in that kind of game. Burns has settled into the right side of the Avalanche’s defensive pairing with Josh Manson, and while he’s not asked to drive the offense from the back end, he still has that built-in instinct to fire away.
Against a Stars team that packs the middle and forces traffic to the perimeter, defensemen shots can become the easiest path to offense. If Dallas keeps funneling play outside, Burns should have chances to test the goalie from the blue line.
T.J. Hughes Over 0.5 Points (+119) is another spot that stands out because of usage.
Hughes is the right wing on Colorado’s third line at five-on-five, but his role grows on the power play. He’s on the first unit with Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri, and Martin Necas, which gives him direct access to the Avalanche’s best scoring chances.
If Dallas gets too physical and sends Colorado to the power play a few times, Hughes doesn’t need much to cash. One secondary assist is enough.
Nathan MacKinnon Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (+102) is the riskier-looking side, but the matchup supports it. Dallas has the kind of defensive setup that can frustrate top puck carriers, with layered zone coverage and tight gap control that forces dump-ins and cuts down clean shot looks.
MacKinnon will still drive the offense, but this game points more toward him distributing than firing away. He already showed that sort of approach on Tuesday, when he assisted on even-strength goals by Arturri Lehkonen and Martin Necas.
The Stars have shown they’re willing to live in low-event hockey, and that can keep MacKinnon’s shot count in check - just as it did last night, when he took only a pair of shots.
Overall, this looks like a spot where Colorado’s offense creates volume, but Dallas’s structure keeps a few of the cleaner scoring numbers from getting too out of hand.
In Other News...
Avalanche Catch A Break In Dallas But Face A Bigger Concern
The Avalanche walked into Dallas with a little extra room to breathe before puck drop, thanks to a Stars lineup that looks thinner than usual down the middle. Wyatt Johnston is unavailable because of an illness, and thats a notable absence for a team that has leaned on his reliability for a long stretch. Sam Steel has been bumped up to second center, and Dallas is even asking defenseman Kyle Capobianco to fill in as a forward, a sign the Stars are patching things together wherever they can.
Colorado still has its own issues to manage, though, and they are bigger than any short-term break in the matchup. The Avalanche are also missing Cale Makar for family reasons, and that leaves them operating with 17 skaters while trying to keep pace in a game that already has some shuffling on both benches. With injuries adding to the uncertainty for both sides, this one has turned into less of a clean matchup and more of a test of depth and adaptability. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Got The Response They Needed In Heated Stars Win
MacKenzie Blackwood steadied the Avalanche in a needed 3-2 win over the Stars during the NHLs Frozen Frenzy, turning aside 24 shots and helping Colorado reset the tone after its previous loss. Martin Necas delivered the offense with two goals, including the power-play winner, as the Avalanche found a way to come out on top in a game that had plenty of bite for this early stretch of the schedule.
The physical edge was part of the story, too, with Nathan MacKinnon dropping the gloves in a fight and leaving with a bloody nose that needed attention during the game, though he is expected to be fine. Colorado and Dallas are right back at it in the next game of the home-and-home, giving the Avalanche a quick chance to show whether this win was just a response or the start of something steadier. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Fast Start Suddenly Feels Fragile Against Dallas
Artturi Lehkonen gave Colorado the kind of start it wanted, scoring first in the opening period and briefly putting the Avalanche in control against Dallas. The pace was tense from there, with both goaltenders making key saves as the Stars pressed back and the game settled into the sort of early-season test that can turn on one mistake.
Dallas found that mistake before the period was over, tying things at 1-1 on a power play and taking some of the shine off Colorados opening push. Penalties and a late altercation only added to the unease, leaving the Avalanche with a good start that suddenly felt a lot less secure heading into the next stretch of the game. [Read more 🡒]