The Avalanche head into Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night with a matchup that lines up well for offense, and the prop board reflects it. Colorado has opened the season with 10 wins in 18 games while averaging four goals a night, and Toronto comes in allowing 3.11 goals per game. With the total set at 6.5 and the over sitting at -115, the market is clearly bracing for scoring.
Toronto’s record sits at eight wins through 19 games, but the Leafs’ 28.6 percent power play keeps them dangerous. At the same time, their defense has left enough openings for Colorado’s top threats - and even some of its depth pieces - to draw attention in the prop market. The Avalanche are also listed with a 59 percent win probability on the road.
Martin Necas is the cleanest shot angle on the board. His over 2.5 total shots is priced at -107, and the setup makes sense.
He’s locked into the right wing spot on Colorado’s top line and also works on the first power-play unit, which gives him two different ways to pile up attempts. Toronto’s pace can turn games into rush chances, and with the Leafs likely focused on taking away Nathan MacKinnon through the middle, that can open space for the wingers.
Necas doesn’t need much room to let it fly, and three shots is a reachable number for a first-line player with that kind of usage.
Brock Nelson offers a different kind of value at +119 for over 0.5 total points. He centers Colorado’s third line, but his role on the second power-play unit gives him a real path to the score sheet.
Against a Toronto defense giving up 3.11 goals per game, Nelson doesn’t have to do the heavy lifting to cash. A secondary assist, a rebound, or a touch on the man advantage is enough.
In a game where the scoring should be spread around, he stands out as a reasonable middle-six target.
Brent Burns rounds out the list with over 1.5 total shots at -125. Even on Colorado’s third defensive pairing, he still plays like a defenseman who wants the puck on net.
That approach plays well against a Toronto team that can lose track of assignments high in the zone, creating room for point shots. Burns doesn’t need a huge workload to get there; two shots on goal is all it takes, and his style has long been built around firing from distance whenever the lane is there.
In Other News...
Avalanche Open Tough Trip With One Big Cale Makar Question
The Avalanche head into Tuesday nights game in Toronto with a familiar sort of early-trip uncertainty, this time centered on Cale Makar. Jared Bednar said Makar left practice as a precaution, but the defenseman will travel with the team as Colorado opens a four-game road swing against the Maple Leafs. The timing matters, too, with the Avs looking to keep their momentum intact after MacKenzie Blackwoods recent shutout and with the schedule immediately turning demanding away from home.
Alex Gagnes recall from the Eagles gives Colorado another layer of depth on the back end while the club waits to see how Makar responds. For a team that leans heavily on its top defenseman in every situation, the question in Toronto is less about one regular-season game than about how much caution the Avalanche want to show this early in a trip that could shape the week ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Devon Toews Is Becoming A Bigger Avalanche Weapon Than Expected
Devon Toews has quietly turned into one of the Avalanches most productive players this season, and the latest reminder came in a 6-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs. He finished with a goal and an assist, pushing him to 18 points in 19 games while Colorado kept rolling behind another strong night from Mackenzie Blackwood, who picked up his 10th win.
A recent shift in the blue line setup has helped unlock even more offense from Toews. With Josh Manson injured, head coach Jared Bednar separated Toews from Cale Makar, giving Toews more room to push forward and join the attack. For a team that already leans on its top defensemen for heavy minutes, getting this kind of extra production from Toews gives Colorado another layer it did not necessarily expect. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Get A Huge Boost As Blackwood Eyes Leafs Redemption
Cale Makar is expected to be back in the lineup when the Avalanche head into their rematch with the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena, and that alone gives Colorado a far different look than the one Toronto saw the first time around. The Avalanche have leaned on Makars ability to drive play from the back end, and his presence should matter in a game that already carries some extra weight because of the venue and the opponent.
Mackenzie Blackwood will also have a chance to reset after his last outing against Toronto, when he allowed five goals. For Colorado, the matchup is about more than just one goalies stat line, but Blackwoods response will be worth watching in a game where the Avalanche are trying to stack a strong performance against a familiar team in a familiar building. [Read more 🡒]