The Colorado Avalanche have had one of their strengths slip into a problem area, and it’s happening on the blue line.
The mistakes have shown up in plain sight this season - the ugly giveaways, the blown plays, even the kind of bad break that saw a Cale Makar goal bounce off his stick and into the net. But the numbers suggest this isn’t just a bad-luck story. One defenseman who was expected to help steady things has not delivered the way Colorado hoped.
That player is Brett Kulak.
Kulak arrived on a big offseason contract this summer with the expectation that he would help anchor the shutdown pairing. Instead, his season has been uneven. He even moved up last game with Cale Makar, but that doesn’t change the larger picture of how he’s performed overall.
The possession numbers are a clear warning sign. Kulak’s Corsi sits at 47%, which means the Avalanche are spending more time defending when he’s on the ice than when he’s off it.
That doesn’t all fall on him alone - there are four other skaters out there, after all - but the contrast with some of Colorado’s other defensemen is hard to ignore. Cale Makar is at 60%, Devon Toews is at 54% and Sam Malinski is at 52%, which raises the question of how much Kulak is dragging down the results of the pairings around him.
The expected-goals numbers tell a similar story. Kulak has posted -8.4% fewer expected goals, meaning the Avalanche are scoring more when he’s not on the ice than when he is.
That can be explained, at least partly, by his role as a defensive defenseman. Still, he’s third among Avalanche defensemen with 322 minutes, so this isn’t a small sample or a fringe role.
That naturally leads to the bigger question: has Jared Bednar leaned on Kulak too heavily? The answer may be more complicated than that, especially since Kulak moving up with Makar suggests Bednar still trusts him in key spots.
Kulak hasn’t been the only Colorado defenseman with issues, either.
Josh Manson has also struggled to provide stability. Before going down with an injury a couple of weeks ago, Manson had a 44% Corsi and a -11% relative expected-goals mark in that stretch.
Brent Burns has had an even rougher time, with a -13.9% expected-goals rating.
Put it all together, and the picture gets clearer: Colorado hasn’t gotten the kind of dependable play it wanted from its bottom three defensemen. Kulak has averaged just under 20 minutes a night, and that workload reflects how much Bednar has had to rely on a group that hasn’t consistently held up its end of the bargain.
In Other News...
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Jared Bednar has already labeled the injury long-term, though he stopped short of offering a return date, and LHeureux still has not resumed skating as he works through the recovery process off the ice. That leaves Colorado waiting for any sign of progress while the rest of the roster has to keep carrying the load. In a season where depth is always tested, this is one more absence the Avalanche would rather not be managing for long. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche May Have Found A Draft Gem With One Big Catch
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The catch is the same one that tends to follow skilled young defensemen with this kind of profile: Elofsson is undersized and still has work to do in his own end. Colorado clearly saw enough in the offensive package to take the swing, but his path to becoming more than a promising draft value will depend on whether he can round out the defensive side while continuing to produce at a high level. [Read more 🡒]
Avalanche Interest In Dylan Larkin Comes With One Huge Problem
The idea of Dylan Larkin in Colorado has enough appeal to keep circulating, but the practical hurdles are still doing most of the talking. Elliotte Friedman said a trade sending the Detroit Red Wings captain to the Avalanche is unlikely unless something major changes, and the reason is pretty straightforward: Colorado does not currently have the trade capital or the salary cap space to make that kind of move work.
For the Avalanche, that leaves the interest in Larkin more as a concept than a real transaction path for now. Detroit would also have to come down on its asking price, and until that happens, the fit remains more theoretical than realistic. It is the kind of rumor that makes sense on paper, but not in the current NHL marketplace. [Read more 🡒]