Tanner Bibee Is Creating An October Decision Guardians Fans Didn't Expect

Tanner Bibee's postseason future hangs in the balance as the Cleveland Guardians face tough choices amidst a crowded and competitive pitching roster.

The Cleveland Guardians suddenly have options, and that’s the kind of problem teams usually welcome this time of year. With Foster Griffin added before the deadline, Cleveland now has seven healthy starters in the mix: Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Griffin, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Logan Allen. If you want to stretch it a bit, Ben Lively can be considered too, since he has made major progress while rehabbing at Triple-A.

That depth makes any postseason rotation projection a little messy. Somebody good is going to be left on the outside, and the Guardians may have to favor the hottest arms over the most familiar ones.

Messick and Williams look locked in. After that, the picture gets fuzzy, even though Bibee still feels like the likeliest name to round out the group.

Still, Bibee’s case is not as clean as it once looked. He entered Sunday with a 4.22 ERA, and right now he does not look like the kind of starter who automatically gives Cleveland an edge. If the Guardians get to October, he could be the odd man out for two clear reasons.

First, he simply is not pitching like the version that broke through in 2023 and carried over into 2024. When Bibee arrived in the majors in 2023, he put up a 2.98 ERA across 142 innings and looked every bit like an ace in the making. The following year only strengthened that idea, with a 3.47 ERA over 173.2 frames and a contract extension to match.

But the last two seasons have told a different story. Bibee has been a good pitcher, just not the front-line force Cleveland hoped it had found.

His 4.24 ERA in 2025 and his 4.22 mark this year, along with a 5-15 record, point to a pitcher who has slipped from those earlier heights. The biggest culprit is his fastball, which has been giving up too much hard contact.

The second issue is the one that can really bite in October: the long ball. Bibee has allowed 27 home runs this year, tied for second-most in the majors before Saturday’s games, and that is a dangerous trait for a postseason starter. Gavin Williams is tied in that home run total too, but he has piled up 228 strikeouts compared with Bibee’s 133, even though they have thrown close to the same number of innings.

Even with those concerns, Bibee still has the kind of resume and workload that usually matter in a playoff race. He can cover innings, and he has enough track record to keep him in the conversation. He also looks like Cleveland’s fourth-most dependable starter behind Messick, Williams and Griffin.

That may be enough to get him into a Division Series rotation. It might not be enough to secure a spot in a Wild Card round. Bibee’s numbers in September - a 10.80 ERA - and his 4.84 ERA in the second half make the decision a lot less straightforward than it once seemed.

In Other News...

Stephen Vogt Is Giving Guardians Fans One Less Thing To Worry About

Stephen Vogt has quickly given Guardians fans a stabilizing presence in the dugout, and a recent Bleacher Report analysis backed up what has been easy to see from the outside. Even amid the ups and downs of the season, Vogt has drawn praise for the way he has handled a roster that continues to ask a lot of him, especially on the pitching side, while keeping Cleveland in the postseason conversation.

For a fan base that has already had enough to monitor on the field, the manager situation is not one of the concerns. Industry opinion has settled in on Vogt as one of the safest bets in the game when it comes to job security, and that matters for a club trying to keep its footing in a tight race. The bigger question now is whether that stability can help the Guardians turn a solid year into something more. [Read more 🡒]

Guardians Bullpen Decision Puts Stephen Vogt In A Late-Season Spot

The Guardians made another late-season bullpen tweak, optioning Franco Aleman to Triple-A Columbus and bringing Conor Brogdon back to the major league roster. It is the kind of roster move teams make when every inning starts to matter a little more, especially when recent performances have forced a hard look at who can be trusted in leverage spots. Aleman had been struggling, and the club decided it needed a different look as the schedule tightens.

Brogdon gives Cleveland a familiar option, since he has major league experience and has already moved between Columbus and Cleveland this season. For Stephen Vogt, the decision adds another layer to a bullpen that is being managed carefully with critical games ahead, and it leaves the Guardians continuing to sort out which arms can steady the back end when the margin for error gets thin. [Read more 🡒]

Guardians Still Have A Real Opening In The AL Central Race

The AL Central race has tightened again, and Cleveland is right there with a real chance to keep pressing Chicago down the stretch. The White Sox have slid in recent months, especially in September, while the Guardians have steadied themselves with a strong bullpen and an offense that has looked more dangerous since the All-Star break. Add in the recent upticks from Steven Kwan, Travis Bazzana and Brayan Rocchio, and Cleveland has given itself a path to stay in the hunt.

The bigger point for the Guardians is that this no longer feels like a scramble to stay relevant, but a division race they can still influence with every series. Their recent play has made the margin feel small enough to matter, and Chicagos decline has created the kind of opening clubs spend half a season waiting for. Cleveland still has work to do, but the door is open and the pressure has shifted back onto the team at the top. [Read more 🡒]