A week ago, Ohio State’s trip to USC looked like the toughest game left on the schedule. A true freshman quarterback making his first career start, on the road, at night, on Halloween in the Coliseum against one of the Big Ten’s best offenses - it had all the ingredients of a game where the Buckeyes might have to score 30-plus just to keep pace.
Then USC went to Madison and scored seven points.
Wisconsin handled the Trojans 24-7 on Saturday night, the fewest points a Lincoln Riley team has ever managed. USC dropped out of the AP top 25 and enters Saturday at 6-2 with its playoff hopes hanging by a thread. For Ohio State, that completely changes the way this matchup looks.
What happened in Madison was ugly from the start. USC came in averaging 36.4 points and 462.4 yards per game, while leading the country in first downs.
Jayden Maiava was pacing the Big Ten with 292.1 passing yards per game and had thrown only three interceptions on 224 attempts. Even the offensive line was drawing postseason watch-list attention, landing on the Joe Moore Award midseason list.
None of that traveled with them.
USC finished with 241 total yards, its fewest under Riley. The Trojans never hit a play of 20 yards or more.
They went 1-for-3 in the red zone, and four drives died in Wisconsin territory without producing points. Maiava was 31 of 50 for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, including one pick that helped set up Wisconsin’s first points from the USC 18.
He was sacked five times and flagged for intentional grounding twice.
The ground game was even worse. USC finished with minus-17 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Even when the sack yardage is removed, the running backs still got nothing going. Riley didn’t soften the edges afterward, saying, “We flat-out didn’t play good enough on any of the three sides of the ball.”
And somehow, Wisconsin won by 17 even though Colton Joseph threw for only 58 yards.
That’s why Ohio State has a very different kind of challenge now.
It does not mean USC’s offense suddenly forgot how to score. A team does not average 36 points over seven games by accident, and Maiava is still one of the better quarterbacks in the conference.
Riley has been building elite offenses for more than a decade, and USC will be desperate at home with its season on the line. A better showing Saturday is still the most likely outcome.
But Wisconsin also put the blueprint on the table.
Stop the run. Force USC into obvious passing downs.
Heat up Maiava when he’s behind the chains. Once the Trojans couldn’t stay ahead of schedule, everything started to stall.
That should sound familiar to Ohio State. Over its last three games, the Buckeyes held Iowa to 39 rushing yards, Maryland to 82 and Indiana to 73.
Indiana entered that game averaging 221 rushing yards per contest. If Ohio State can bottle up USC the same way Wisconsin did, Maiava will be living in those third-and-long situations that led to all that pressure.
The question for the Buckeyes is whether their pass rush can finish the job. Ohio State has not consistently gotten home this season, and Wisconsin showed how much pressure can bother Maiava.
Ryan Day expects to have most of his injured defenders back, likely including Kenyatta Jackson Jr. If Jackson and the rest of the edge group can win a few one-on-one battles on third down, Ohio State has a real shot to take control defensively.
That shifts the whole feel of the game.
What looked like a potential shootout in Los Angeles now feels much more like the Indiana game: physical, lower scoring, and shaped by whether Ohio State’s defense can set the tone while the offense avoids mistakes. That is a far better setup for Luke Fahey, or whoever gets the start.
USC’s defense has given up 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities. If Ohio State can run the ball with Bo Jackson and Isaiah West, get Jeremiah Smith involved on quick throws and protect the football, it does not need to score 35.
The wild card is everything around the game, because that part still favors USC. Saturday night in the Coliseum, outside the top 25, with playoff hopes on the edge - that is a volatile mix, especially for a young quarterback making his first start. The Trojans are going to come out swinging early, and the crowd will be loud.
Even with Wisconsin’s result, this still feels like Ohio State’s hardest remaining game because of the setting, the quarterback situation and the desperation on the other side. But the Trojans just showed the Buckeyes how to beat them, and Ohio State has the defense to do it even better.
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