The Cleveland Guardians’ playoff outlook has taken a hard hit, and FanGraphs’ numbers tell the story plainly.
Cleveland went aggressive at the trade deadline, bringing in four players with the expectation that the roster would not just stay in the hunt, but push into October and make noise once it got there. Instead, the last week - and really much of the last few months - has dragged the Guardians in the wrong direction.
Not long ago, the picture looked much brighter. On May 24, after a strong three-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies, Cleveland sat at 32-23.
FanGraphs gave the club a 64.8 percent chance to win the AL Central and a 77.9 percent chance to make the playoffs. At that stage, the Guardians looked capable of running away with the division and even competing for one of the two first-round byes in the American League.
That is no longer the case. Cleveland has gone 7-16 since the Midsummer Classic, and earlier this week the club had fallen as low as fourth in the division. FanGraphs now gives the White Sox the best odds to win the AL Central at 36.7 percent, while the Guardians sit at 19.9 percent.
The biggest reason for the decline is easy to spot: the lineup has not been able to cash in when it matters most. Cleveland is hitting just .677 OPS this season with runners in scoring position. Since the All-Star Break, that number is .673 OPS in those spots, and it played a major role in Tuesday night’s loss to the Tigers.
That has been a season-long drag on the Guardians. Even with all the movement at the deadline, the run production has not followed.
Still, the season is not over. Cleveland has a favorable stretch of games left and a rotation that remains one of the team’s strengths, the kind of pitching staff that can support a postseason push. But the Guardians cannot afford much more time wasted if they want those chances to turn back in their favor.
In Other News...
Myles Straw Puts Clevelands Old Contract Mistake Back In Focus
Myles Straws path through Toronto has put a familiar Cleveland topic back in view. The former Guardians outfielder is now in the mix for the Blue Jays center field job, with the opening created by the Daulton Varsho trade giving him a real chance to carve out a role for himself in a new setting.
For Cleveland, though, Straws presence on a contender also serves as a reminder of the contract extension that once tied him to the Guardians and still hangs over his value. His defense has always kept him on the radar, but the offensive limitations that complicated his tenure in Cleveland have not gone away, and the money attached to his deal makes his long-term fit a tricky call for Toronto as it looks ahead. [Read more 🡒]
Chase DeLauter Sounds Off On Why Cleveland Keeps Stalling At The Plate
Chase DeLauters take on the Guardians recent trouble at the plate was refreshingly direct: when the pressure rises, the swings get bigger and the approach gets tighter. Cleveland has spent the last 17 games hitting under .220 with runners in scoring position, a stretch that has turned too many promising innings into missed chances. DeLauter said the situation should not change the assignment, because the best version of hitting with traffic on the bases still starts the same way it does with the bases empty, by finding a pitch to drive and staying clean through the swing.
For a team that has had enough chances to do more damage, the issue sounds less like a lack of opportunity than a failure to stay settled in the moments that matter most. DeLauters comments get at the frustration inside the lineup, where chasing and pressing have become a recurring theme whenever Cleveland gets close to cashing in. The underlying problem remains the same, and until the Guardians simplify those at-bats, the scoring drought is likely to keep hanging over them. [Read more 🡒]
Jos Ramrez Has Cleveland Facing A Brutal Late-Season Decision
Jos Ramrezs return from a hamate bone injury has not brought the usual lift to Clevelands lineup, and that has turned a nagging health issue into a real roster question as the season wears on. Since coming back, he has struggled to find impact at the plate, while the Guardians have managed to hang around even in the games he has missed, keeping the discussion focused less on what he means in theory and more on what he is providing right now.
Angel Genaos recent promotion only adds another layer to the decision, because Cleveland is weighing both immediate production and the longer view of how best to handle Ramrezs recovery. The organization appears to be sorting through whether a more cautious approach would serve everyone better, and the answer could shape the late-season infield picture in a meaningful way. [Read more 🡒]