The Cleveland Guardians pulled off one of the most improbable turnarounds in recent memory last season, clawing their way back from a 15.5-game deficit to win the AL Central. That kind of comeback doesn’t happen without near-perfect execution down the stretch - and that’s exactly what Cleveland delivered.
They didn’t just win games - they won the right games. When the margins were razor-thin, the Guardians found ways to come out on top.
In fact, they posted a 50-33 record in games decided by two runs or fewer, a stat that speaks volumes about their resilience and late-game poise. That’s not just good; that’s elite in the context of a playoff chase where every inning, every pitch, and every bullpen decision matters.
What makes that record even more impressive is the turbulence they faced in the back end of their bullpen. Emmanuel Clase, their All-Star closer, was sidelined in August due to an MLB gambling investigation - a major blow for any team, let alone one trying to chase down a division title.
But Cleveland didn’t flinch. Cade Smith stepped in and held the line, locking down save situations and keeping the Guardians in the hunt.
And they didn’t just sneak into the postseason - they made history. Trailing the Detroit Tigers by 11 games in September, Cleveland completed the largest division comeback MLB has ever seen. That’s not just a hot streak - that’s a team refusing to fold when everything said they should.
Looking ahead to 2026, though, the path may be even steeper. The Guardians didn’t make any splashy offseason moves to address an offense that struggled for much of last year.
That’s left some projections painting a less-than-rosy picture. And when you take a closer look at the math, it’s easy to see why.
If Cleveland had simply gone .500 in those tight games - say, 42-41 instead of 50-33 - they would’ve finished with a losing record. No playoffs.
No comeback story. So while their clutch gene was a major asset in 2025, counting on that same level of performance again is a risky bet.
Instead, the Guardians are banking on internal growth. That means trusting a pipeline of promising prospects to take meaningful steps forward. But as Opening Day approaches, it’s looking like fewer of those young names will crack the starting lineup than initially expected.
One name Cleveland will continue to lean on is Jose Ramirez. The All-Star third baseman has been the heartbeat of this team for years, but even he isn’t immune to aging curves. FanGraphs projections suggest a slight dip in his production this season - still strong, but perhaps shy of the 30-30 standard he’s made look routine.
Still, if the past two seasons under manager Stephen Vogt have taught us anything, it’s that this team doesn’t go quietly. The Guardians have shown they can defy expectations and thrive under pressure. They’ll need that same grit - and maybe a little more - to navigate what’s shaping up to be a challenging 2026 campaign.