Guardians Rotation Suddenly Faces A Second Half Test It May Not Pass

Can the Guardians' impressive five-man rotation sustain its momentum through the second half of the season?

The Guardians have spent the first half of the season doing something almost nobody else in baseball has managed: rolling with the same five starters over and over again.

Through 97 games, Cleveland has leaned on Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Slade Cecconi, Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo. Across the rest of the majors, the other 29 clubs averaged nearly 11 starters over that same stretch. That kind of stability is rare, and it has given the Guardians a rotation identity that stands out even before the season’s second act begins.

That run is about to get a little shakeup, though not a full-blown overhaul. When Cleveland returns from the All-Star break Friday against the Pirates, the order will already be different.

Williams, Cantillo and Bibee are lined up for the three-game set in Pittsburgh, a change from the Opening Day sequence of Bibee, Williams, Cantillo, Cecconi and Messick. The final five starts before the break came from Cecconi, Williams, Messick, Bibee and Cantillo.

“We are definitely going to re-set the rotation,” said manager Stephen Vogt on Sunday before the Guardians completed a three-game sweep of the Marlins to enter the All-Star break.

Messick’s appearance in Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Philadelphia also played into the decision. He worked the second inning, retired the National League in order and did it on 10 pitches.

“There are things we want to set up the best we can coming out of the break,” said Vogt. “It’s kind of mix and match.

It gives us an opportunity to reshuffle the order. We can break up the lefties (Messick and Cantillo) and the righties in Tanner and Gavin.

“We’re going to restructure a little bit.”

The bigger question is whether this group can stay intact all the way through the rest of the season. Probably not, but Cleveland also doesn’t sound eager to rip up what has worked. Vogt made it clear the club will keep an eye on workloads, especially for Messick and Cantillo, who have not gone through a full season as a big-league starter.

“We’re definitely cognizant of the workload,” said Vogt. “I think we saw a little bit of that near the tail end of this (the first half). But he (Messick) finds a way of getting through it.

“We’re aware pf all our guys’ workloads. We’re aware of who has thrown this many innings before and how far they eclipsed it by.”

The first-half numbers help explain why Cleveland has been able to ride this group. Bibee went 3-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 20 starts, while Williams was 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 19 starts.

Cantillo posted an 8-4 record and a 3.56 ERA across 20 starts. Cecconi finished 4-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 19 starts, and Messick was 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 19 starts.

The workload is the other side of the story. Since turning professional, Bibee’s high-water mark for innings in a season is 182 1/3 in 2025.

Williams has reached 167 2/3 innings in 2025. Cantillo’s most is 116 2/3 in 2025, Cecconi’s is 145 in 2025 and Messick’s is 138 1/3 in 2025.

As a group, the rotation entered the break 33-28 with a 3.69 ERA. It ranked second in the American League in innings pitched at 538 1/3, wins at 33, starts at 97 and pitches thrown at 8,626.

Cleveland is still the outlier in its division, too. The Guardians have used five starters in 2026, while the Twins and Royals have used 10 each, the Tigers 12 and the White Sox 14.

The possibility of a six-man rotation later in the year is not off the table. The Guardians used one last September after rosters expanded on Sept. 1, adding Cantillo to a group that already included Bibee, Williams, Cecconi, Messick and Logan Allen. That move paid off in a big way.

Cleveland went 20-7 in September, won the AL Central on the final day of the season and finished the comeback with Brayan Rocchio’s walk-off homer. The Guardians erased a 15 1/2-game deficit, the biggest comeback in MLB history. The six-man rotation won 13 games and posted a 2.60 ERA in September, good for the second-most wins by any big-league team in any month in the 2025 season and the second-lowest ERA in September behind the Dodgers.

Cantillo was named AL Rookie of the Month after going 2-0 with a 1.55 ERA in five September starts. Messick, who joined the rotation on Aug. 20, went 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA in his first seven big-league starts.

Would Cleveland go that route again this September?

“We’re open to everything,” said Vogt. “We’re not stubborn to anything. We’re going to do the best we can to keep our guys healthy and effective.”

If the Guardians do add a sixth starter again, it almost certainly would wait until Sept. 1 when the rosters expand. Doing it before then would leave Vogt short a bullpen arm, and that seems like a tough ask.

For now, the focus stays on the five-man run and how long it can last. A makeup doubleheader against Detroit on Sept. 4 could make things trickier, but Cecconi said the group has one simple goal.

“We’re trying to make it to the finish line with the same five we started with,” said Cecconi. “It would be really cool to see that happen.”

That would be a franchise milestone. Cleveland’s current rotation has already set a team record with the same five starters making 97 straight starts. The only other five-man group that came close was in 1999, when the same five starters made 79 consecutive starts.

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