The Guardians are close enough to October that the conversation has already shifted from whether they’ll get there to what they’ll do once they arrive.
Cleveland holds a one-game edge over the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central race and sits four games ahead of the Houston Astros, who are currently fourth in the American League Wild Card picture. So while nothing is official yet, Stephen Vogt’s club is in strong position and can start looking ahead at postseason decisions, especially the starting rotation.
At the top, there are clear answers. Parker Messick has been excellent, carrying an elite 2.57 ERA, while Gavin Williams leads the American League with 244 strikeouts.
After those two, though, things get murkier. Foster Griffin, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are the names in the mix, but not all of them inspire the same level of confidence.
Bibee is the biggest question mark right now. His recent stretch has been rough, with home runs becoming a bigger problem and his results swinging sharply from outing to outing. Former Guardians pitcher and current analyst Jensen Lewis said he doesn’t trust Bibee in this spot and views using him in a meaningful postseason game as a major gamble.
“This is a really, really tough decision for Stephen Vogt and this front office to have to make. Look, the numbers don’t lie, right?
The last four starts, it’s an 8.24 ERA, but it’s 26 hits in 19 and 2/3. It’s only 14 strikeouts and also eight walks in that duration.
So, those are the numbers that are more concerning to me. It’s a lot of traffic.
It’s a lot of balls in play. That’s an issue.
I don’t know if you can stick him out there for a postseason start right now,” Lewis said.
The season numbers back up the concern. Bibee’s ERA is 4.35, and his 4.60 Fielding Independent Pitching mark is equally ordinary. His fastball is being hit hard, and that problem has only grown as his velocity has slipped over the past couple of years.
For now, Griffin and Cantillo look like safer bets. Cantillo can provide innings, which matters over a long regular season, but that skill set is less appealing in a short postseason series where every outing gets magnified.
Vogt doesn’t have to make the call yet, and Cleveland still has to lock up its playoff spot. Even so, Bibee’s recent form has made it increasingly likely that he gets left out of the Wild Card or Division Series rotation.
In Other News...
Guardians Moved Within Reach Of October After A Win That Got Tense
The Guardians gave themselves another October boost with a fast start and enough steady work from the mound to hold off a late push. Angel Martnez, David Fry and Nathaniel Lowe all helped build the early cushion, and Parker Messick did his part in a five-inning start before the bullpen took over to finish the job.
Tim Herrin, Craig Yoho, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith each had a hand in protecting the lead, keeping Cleveland in control even as the game tightened down the stretch. The win leaves the Guardians with a magic number of two to clinch a playoff spot, and depending on how the other results break, it could shrink to one before long. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Are Suddenly One Step Closer To A Clinch After Another Thriller
The Guardians kept finding ways to survive on September 22, outlasting the Red Sox 3-2 in another tight, late-September game that fit the tone of a team trying to finish the job. Nathaniel Lowe provided the decisive blow with a sacrifice fly in the ninth inning, while Parker Messick did enough in his start to keep Cleveland in position before the bullpen took over.
Cade Smith finished it off and reached 40 saves on the year, a notable marker for a club that has leaned on its late-inning arm all season. The bigger picture is even better for Cleveland: its magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to two, and the Guardians still sit atop the AL Central as the calendar turns toward the final stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Vogts Late-Game Guardians Move Is Becoming A Real October Weapon
Travis Bazzanas rookie season has come with the usual growing pains, and for Stephen Vogt, that has meant getting creative when games tighten up late. The Guardians manager has turned to Angel Genao as a defensive replacement in key spots, using his versatility around the infield to help shore up a young roster when the margin for error shrinks. It is the sort of September adjustment contenders make when every clean inning and every sure-handed exchange starts to matter more.
Against the Red Sox, that move paid off in a big way, as Genao made a crucial defensive play that helped close out the win and trim Clevelands magic number to clinch a postseason berth. The contrast between the two young infielders has become part of the clubs late-game equation, with Genao offering the steadier glove right now while Bazzana continues to work through the challenges of his first full season. For a team trying to lock down October, those small swaps can carry outsized weight. [Read more 🡒]