The Cleveland Guardians are taking a calculated swing on right-hander Connor Brogdon, signing the 30-year-old to a major league deal worth $900,000 for the 2026 season. It’s a low-risk move with potential upside, and it fits the Guardians’ recent pattern of finding value in pitchers who might’ve flown under the radar elsewhere.
At first glance, Brogdon’s 2025 numbers with the Angels don’t jump off the page-47 innings with a 5.55 ERA isn’t exactly the kind of stat line that screams “big league contract.” But dig a little deeper, and you can see why Cleveland might be intrigued.
Despite the inflated ERA, Brogdon’s strikeout rate (24.6%) and walk rate (9%) were both right around league average. The real culprit behind his struggles?
The long ball. He gave up 11 home runs last season-nearly double his previous career high.
That kind of spike can sometimes be more about bad luck or unfavorable ballpark conditions than a true decline in ability, and advanced metrics like SIERA (3.86) suggest his actual performance may have been better than the surface numbers indicate.
What’s also encouraging is that Brogdon’s velocity is back. After dealing with plantar fasciitis in 2024 and seeing his fastball dip to 92.8 mph, he rebounded in 2025 with an average velocity of 95.5 mph.
That’s in line with where he was during his best years in Philadelphia, when he was a key piece of the Phillies’ bullpen from 2020 to 2022. During that stretch, he posted a 3.42 ERA over 113 innings, with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate and a solid 7.3% walk rate.
He also logged meaningful postseason innings, including 8 2/3 frames during the Phillies’ 2022 World Series run, where he posted a 2.08 ERA.
Things started to slip in 2023-his ERA rose to 4.03, strikeouts dipped, and walks crept up. Then came the injury-plagued 2024 season that limited him to just three innings. But in 2025, even though the results weren’t fully there, the velocity and strikeout numbers showed signs of life.
That’s the version of Brogdon the Guardians are betting on: a high-leverage reliever with a mid-90s fastball and a track record of success when healthy. And they’ve got the bullpen infrastructure to make it work.
Even after losing closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling suspension midseason, Cleveland’s bullpen still finished 2025 with a 3.44 ERA-third-best in the majors behind only the Padres and Red Sox. That’s no accident.
The Guardians have consistently built one of the most reliable relief corps in baseball, often getting the most out of undervalued arms.
Brogdon won’t have minor league options in 2026, so if the Guardians want to send him down, he’ll have to clear waivers first. With over three years of service time, he’d also have the right to elect free agency if outrighted, though he’d have to forfeit his salary to do so. At $900K-just above the $780K league minimum-it’s unlikely he’d walk away from that money.
This deal gives Cleveland flexibility. If Brogdon finds his form, he could be a valuable mid-to-late inning option.
If not, the financial commitment is minimal. And if he’s still on the roster at the end of 2026, the Guardians would have the option to retain him through arbitration for 2027.
It’s the kind of move that doesn’t make headlines in December, but could quietly pay dividends when bullpen depth becomes crucial in the dog days of summer. Brogdon’s got the tools. Now it’s up to the Guardians to help him put it all together again.