The Nationals’ decision to lock up Cade Cavalli gives the Guardians a pretty clean blueprint for how to handle their own pitching talent.
Cavalli’s new four-year deal guarantees $47 million and can climb to $70 million if the club option for 2031 is exercised. It also arrives after a career start that got knocked off course by Tommy John surgery and a string of arm injuries, only for him to turn into a breakout arm this season with a 3.02 ERA over 169 2/3 innings.
For Cleveland, that kind of move should set off the offseason alarms. If the Guardians want to get ahead of rising prices, there are three pitchers worth sitting down with soon.
Parker Messick is the obvious place to start.
He was already on the radar as a possible extension candidate last offseason, and his stock has only climbed since then. After impressing in a late-season cameo a year ago, Messick has taken another step this season and should finish with a top-three Rookie of the Year result and a top-five Cy Young finish.
The Cavalli deal matters here because it shows where the market can land for a young starter with limited big league innings. Cavalli had 53 innings before this season, compared to Messick’s 39 2/3, and still got paid like a pitcher with real momentum. Messick, though, comes with even more team control and has been better almost across the board.
That’s why a deal in the five-year range makes sense, one that buys out all of his arbitration years. A starting point of five years and $75 million, with performance escalators, feels like the right ballpark. Wait too long, and the number only grows.
The same logic applies to Cade Smith, even if he’s a very different case as a reliever.
Smith has become one of the game’s most reliable shutdown arms after being pushed into the closer role last season. He entered the week with a 2.02 ERA in 71 1/3 innings, had worked four multi-inning outings in September, and hadn’t allowed an earned run in nearly a month.
This offseason would be his first year of arbitration, assuming that still exists after the lockout, which makes him a prime candidate for a team-friendly early deal. A three-year contract would let the Guardians buy out those arbitration seasons before the price climbs any higher.
The reliever market has been all over the place lately, with Luke Weaver getting two years and $22 million and Edwin Díaz landing three years and $60 million, but Smith seems like a middle ground. A three-year, $35 million pact looks like a sensible place to begin.
Then there’s Foster Griffin, who doesn’t fit the extension label as neatly but still belongs in this conversation.
He’s set to become a free agent after the season, which gives Cleveland a chance to act before anyone else does. Griffin started the year with the Nationals, where he posted a 3.06 ERA in 129 1/3 innings while working alongside Cavalli in the rotation. Since the trade to the Guardians, things have gone sideways - his ERA has jumped to 5.79 in 37 1/3 innings.
That slump makes him a buy-low target rather than a slam-dunk long-term piece, but it also keeps him within Cleveland’s range. Any contract would likely come in below Cavalli’s $47 million guarantee, and the Guardians already have the advantage of knowing him from the inside. They don’t need to start from scratch in free agency.
In Other News...
Guardians Survived A Wild Royals Fight And Kept Control Of The Central
The Guardians walked into Kauffman Stadium and found plenty of resistance from the Royals, but they still left with a 12-9 win and their grip on first place in the AL Central intact. It was the kind of game that had swings throughout, with Cleveland answering Kansas Citys punches and getting important production from Angel Martinez, David Fry and Jose Ramirez to stay in front of the division race.
Gavin Williams did not have a smooth night on the mound, which only added to the tension in a game that kept changing hands. Cleveland will have to keep sorting through the pitching side as the series moves on, with Michael Wacha and Tanner Bibee scheduled to face off in the next game and another chance for the Guardians to protect that narrow lead. [Read more 🡒]
Chase DeLauter Gives Guardians Fans One More Reason To Believe
Chase DeLauter has given Cleveland plenty to like in his first full season in the majors, turning his 2026 campaign into one of the brighter developments in the Guardians lineup. After debuting in the 2025 postseason, he has settled in as a central piece of the offense, leading the club in batting average and OPS while staying on the field for 131 games. For a team that has leaned on steady production all year, his rise has become one of the clearest reasons for optimism.
Now the Guardians are heading toward a familiar late-season question: can they hold onto first place in the AL Central and line up an ALDS berth? If they do, DeLauter will be back in the October spotlight for his second playoff run, but this time with a full season behind him and a much larger role in what comes next. For Cleveland, that combination is exactly the kind of young-core momentum that can make a postseason path feel a little more real. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Bullpen Depth Just Put One Reliever In A Tough Spot
Connor Brogdon cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus after being designated for assignment by the Guardians, a move that quietly underscores how much bullpen depth has changed around Cleveland in recent weeks. Brogdon had spent the first six weeks of the season in the major league relief mix, but injuries pushed most of his year back into the minors, leaving him in a difficult spot as the roster has gotten healthier and more crowded.
Brogdon will stay around the organization for Cleveland's stay ready camp now that the minor league season is over, which gives him a chance to keep working while his immediate role remains unsettled. He is also expected to become a free agent this offseason, so the next stretch may be less about finding a lane with the Guardians and more about proving he still belongs in the picture somewhere. [Read more 🡒]