The Guardians and White Sox have been staring at this three-game set for a while. Now it’s here, and the timing could hardly be sharper.
Cleveland enters Monday just a half-game behind Chicago, and the final regular-season meetings between the two AL Central contenders at Progressive Field have turned into a series with real division weight. By Wednesday night, one of these clubs could walk out with control of the Central and a clear lane to the title. The Guardians have been closing the gap for weeks, while the White Sox have seen their cushion vanish during a late-season slide.
For Cleveland, that makes the next three days feel pretty simple: beat the team in front of you and flip the standings.
The Guardians will lean first on their rotation, and Gavin Williams is set up to take the opening shot. He enters 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 228 strikeouts, giving Cleveland a true strikeout arm against a Chicago lineup that hasn’t found much rhythm lately.
The White Sox have dropped 10 of 14, and Sunday’s 1-0-for-7 performance with runners in scoring position against St. Louis was another reminder of how thin the offense has been.
Chicago scored just one run on four hits in that game, and it has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its last seven.
That doesn’t mean the White Sox are harmless. Miguel Vargas and Munetaka Murakami remain major names in the middle of the order, and Colson Montgomery brings left-handed power with 30-homer pop. But Williams’ swing-and-miss stuff gives Cleveland a real chance to keep those bats from turning one mistake into a crooked number.
Parker Messick gives the Guardians another look from the left side. He comes into the series with a 2.53 ERA and has already shown he can handle a meaningful September assignment. On Friday at Minnesota, he allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings and kept Cleveland close until the offense finally broke through in a 5-2 win.
Cleveland doesn’t need a marathon from either starter. Five or six solid innings would be enough to put the bullpen in position to do what it has done so often down the stretch.
That brings the Guardians’ offense into the picture, and the top of the lineup matters as much as anything. Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana both made noise in Sunday’s 9-2 win at Minnesota, and Cleveland would love a repeat of that kind of traffic against Chicago.
Kwan went 3-for-4 with a home run, double, walk, two RBI and two runs. Bazzana drove in three runs, including two on his 12th homer of the season.
Jo Adell also homered as the Guardians pushed Twins starter Joe Ryan into 84 pitches over four innings.
That’s the blueprint again: make the starter work, get into the bullpen early, and let the middle of the order operate with runners on base.
Monday’s matchup starts with Sean Newcomb opening for Sean Burke. Newcomb has already handled Cleveland well this season, posting a 1.23 ERA in 7 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts.
Burke, though, is coming off a rough outing against Pittsburgh, when he was charged with seven runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings. The Pirates jumped on him immediately and scored five times in the first.
Tuesday brings Davis Martin, another pitcher with some familiarity against Cleveland’s lineup. That makes Kwan and Bazzana even more important. If they can force Martin into long at-bats and reach base, José Ramírez, Chase DeLauter and Adell become a lot tougher to deal with.
Kwan’s value is obvious: he doesn’t waste plate appearances, and he has a knack for setting the table. Bazzana adds patience, power and speed, which gives Cleveland a different kind of pressure at the top.
The Guardians don’t need to win this series with a barrage of home runs. They need those two creating problems early and often.
And if the games tighten late, Cleveland’s bullpen may end up being the separator.
Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin have been the main late-inning weapons for Stephen Vogt, and the group has handled heavy work throughout the second half. Smith picked up his 36th save Friday at Minnesota, needing just nine pitches to close out the 5-2 win. Herrin has become especially useful against left-handed hitters, which matters in a series that includes Murakami and Montgomery.
That matchup in the late innings could decide everything. Herrin gives Vogt a left-handed answer before turning to Gaddis or Smith, and Smith’s strikeout ability becomes especially valuable when one swing can erase a lead.
Chicago proved Saturday that it can still change a game in a hurry, with Randal Grichuk taking the White Sox from their final strike to a 6-5 win over St. Louis with a ninth-inning homer.
That’s the danger Cleveland has to respect. The White Sox don’t need a parade of hits to make trouble.
If the Guardians’ starters can get them into the middle innings with a lead, the formula is clear enough. Herrin, Gaddis and Smith give Cleveland its best path through Chicago’s dangerous bats, and this series could come down to which bullpen is asked to protect a lead first.
In Other News...
Stephen Vogt Is Giving Guardians Fans One Less Thing To Worry About
In a season that has asked plenty of Cleveland, Stephen Vogt has quietly become one less source of anxiety. Bleacher Report recently placed the Guardians manager in the highest tier of job security among MLB skippers, a reflection of how the organization views the job he has done navigating the roster and steering the pitching staff through the usual grind.
The Guardians have stayed in the mix in the postseason race, and that matters when you start talking about how much patience a front office is likely to show. Vogt has handled the challenge well enough that industry observers see his spot as secure for the foreseeable future, which lets the focus stay on the pennant chase instead of the dugout. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Face One Offseason Rotation Decision Fans Will Debate
The Guardians have spent much of the season benefiting from a rotation that has stayed largely intact, with young arms like Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee giving the club a clear foundation to build on. It is the kind of homegrown pitching group Cleveland has long preferred, and it has made the offseason conversation feel a little different than in years past, when the staff often looked like the area most likely to be shuffled.
Still, one familiar name hovers over the discussion: Shane Bieber, who is now a free agent after battling injuries and making only limited starts with the Blue Jays. A reunion in Cleveland is considered a longshot, which leaves the Guardians more likely to move ahead with the group they already trust while sorting out the uncertain status of Foster Griffin. For a team that leans heavily on pitching stability, it is exactly the sort of decision fans will debate all winter. [Read more 🡒]
Tanner Bibee Is Creating An October Decision Guardians Fans Didn't Expect
The Guardians went into the trade deadline with an eye on pitching depth, and the addition of Foster Griffin gave them seven healthy options to sort through as October approaches. That kind of surplus usually sounds like a good problem, but it also has a way of forcing hard choices, especially when one of the familiar names in the mix is Tanner Bibee. He was once viewed as a possible ace, the sort of arm a team could build around in a short series, and that still matters when the games get tighter and every inning starts to carry more weight.
Bibees recent regression has complicated the picture, with a higher ERA and more home runs allowed than the club would have hoped for from a frontline starter. Even so, his experience and ability to work deep into games make him hard to leave out of the conversation, and likely hard to leave out of the rotation entirely. For a Guardians team trying to line up its best October plan, the question is no longer whether Bibee belongs in the mix. It is where he fits, and how much trust the team is willing to place in him when the season turns. [Read more 🡒]