The Cleveland Guardians head into Friday night’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays trying to shake off a rough stretch and get their road trip moving in the right direction.
First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. EST at Tropicana Field, with MLB.TV carrying the game.
Cleveland and Tampa Bay are meeting for the second game of their series, and the Guardians arrive after back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Twins. Now they have to reset quickly as they open a three-game road set in Tampa.
The pitching matchup features Joey Cantillo for Cleveland and Shane McLanahan for Tampa Bay. Cantillo is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA, while McLanahan enters at 8-6 with a 3.16 mark. Cantillo’s most recent outing came last Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he worked five innings, gave up four runs and struck out seven in a loss.
Injuries also factor into the picture. The Guardians will be without Angel Martinez because of a foot injury, while the Rays are listed as fully healthy.
That setup fed into Dimers’ updated prediction model, which ran 10,000 simulations of Friday’s game and weighed the latest matchup data against current sportsbook odds. The result: Tampa Bay comes out as the likelier winner at home.
Dimers gives the Guardians a 42.9% chance to win, while the Rays are projected at 57.1% on the moneyline. Cleveland, meanwhile, is expected to cover the +1.5 spread 61.1% of the time. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs, and the model has that split right down the middle at 50% each way.
Dimers’ top betting recommendation is Rays ML (56¢). The model also points to player prop markets for names such as Brayan Rocchio and Steven Kwan as another way to approach the matchup.
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What makes this idea stand out is the blend of offense and versatility on the table. The player in question is in the middle of his best season yet, and he has given San Francisco a useful bat while covering multiple spots around the diamond, including second base, third base, shortstop, first base and left field. For a Cleveland team that could use more balance and more options, that sort of profile is exactly the kind of fit that tends to make sense right up until the moment a deadline deal either comes together or slips away. [Read more 🡒]
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Guardians May Have Found Another Internal Pitching Answer
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After climbing from High-A to Double-A and then on to Triple-A Columbus in short order, the pitcher has paired that rise with steady production, including a 2.61 ERA in 15 starts. The bigger question now is how Cleveland chooses to use him next, since a move to the bullpen could give the club another option for the stretch run and potentially help ease pressure before the trade deadline. [Read more 🡒]