The Cleveland Guardians are staring at a steep climb after Monday’s Game 2 loss to the Chicago White Sox left them down 0-2 in the AL Division Series. They came in as the AL Central champs with home-field advantage, but that edge hasn’t shown up yet, and now one more loss sends them home.
To keep their season alive, Cleveland has to rip off three straight wins - and two of those would have to come in Chicago. That’s a brutal ask, but not one without precedent. Still, the list of teams that have pulled it off is short enough to fit on one hand.
Researcher Luke Potoski pointed out that only three teams have ever recovered from dropping the first two games of a Division Series at home and still won the series: the 2001 Yankees over the Athletics, the 2012 Giants over the Reds and the 2015 Blue Jays over the Rangers.
“For the hopeful Guardians fans wondering, there are three instances in which a team has lost the first two games of a divisional series at home but still went on to win the series: • 2001 ALDS (NYY over OAK) • 2012 NLDS (SF over CIN) • 2015 ALDS (TOR over TEX),” he said.
That means the Guardians are trying to do something no MLB team has done in 11 years, since the Blue Jays’ comeback against Texas. Toronto dropped the first two games at Rogers Centre, then answered by winning two at Globe Life Park and another at home to move on to the AL Championship Series, where they later lost to the Kansas City Royals.
Cleveland is chasing that kind of turnaround, but the numbers are working against them. MLB researcher Sarah Langs noted that in best-of-five postseason series, teams that jump out to a 2-0 lead have gone on to win 83 of 93 times, which comes out to 89 percent. She also said teams that win the first two games on the road in the current 2-2-1 Division Series format have finished the job 17 of 19 times, also 89 percent.
For the Guardians, Game 3 in Chicago on Wednesday now feels like the hinge point of the whole series, even if manager Stephen Vogt has not named his starter yet. His options include Joey Cantillo with an opener ahead of him, or turning to Tanner Bibee or Foster Griffin.
However Cleveland lines it up, the pitching plan will be loose and urgent. Vogt said everyone will be available except Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, which tells you exactly where this series stands: all hands on deck, with the season on the line.
In Other News...
Foster Griffin Gave Cleveland The Outing Nobody Saw Coming
Foster Griffins appearance in Game 3 of the American League Division Series was the kind of surprise outing that can change the feel of a postseason game. In just 2 2/3 innings of relief, Griffin struck out seven, matching the Guardians postseason record for strikeouts by a reliever and helping fuel a night in which Clevelands pitching staff piled up 19 strikeouts, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game.
What made it stand out even more was the setting around it. This was only Griffins second major league relief appearance and his first this season, so there was no real reason to expect him to become a central figure in a playoff game with that much on the line. Instead, he gave Cleveland an outing nobody saw coming, and in October, those are the performances that tend to linger. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Kept Their Season Alive And Now Everything Comes Home
The Guardians are headed back home with their season still intact after a 9-5 win over the White Sox in Game 4 of the ALDS. Cleveland had to answer after falling into an elimination game, and the lineup delivered enough punch to force a decisive Game 5, with the offense breaking through in a big way and giving the club another chance to keep its October run going.
Jos Ramrez was right in the middle of it, helping steady a night that could have slipped away and giving Cleveland the kind of lift it needed when the pressure was highest. Now the focus shifts back to home turf, where the Guardians will try to finish the job and move on to the ALCS, with everything in the series now coming down to one more game. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Suddenly Face A Game 5 Gavin Williams Dilemma
A tense Game 4 win over the White Sox left the Guardians with a familiar October problem and a new wrinkle at the same time. Stephen Vogt leaned on multiple bullpen arms to protect the lead, and one of the more surprising moves was turning to starter Gavin Williams in relief as Cleveland tried to push the American League Division Series to a winner-take-all Game 5.
That usage now hangs over the next days planning, because Williams had not been part of the late-inning relief mix before and was asked to get through just one inning. Vogt said both Williams and Cade Smith should still be options for Game 5, but Cleveland suddenly has to sort out how much it can ask from a starter it may have needed more than expected just to survive the previous night. [Read more 🡒]