The Guardians may have bought themselves a first-round bye, but that doesn’t mean Stephen Vogt is coasting into the ALDS.
Instead of worrying about a wild-card game or scrambling through a short pitching turnaround, Cleveland is using the extra time to sort through one of October’s biggest questions: who gets the ball in Game 1? On the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast, Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes dug into what the bye week looks like for the Guardians, and the picture is more work than rest.
At the center of it all is Vogt’s starter decision, and he’s still sorting through it after Wednesday’s press conference. The opponent isn’t even locked in yet - Cleveland still doesn’t know whether it will face Houston or Chicago - which only adds another layer to the call.
Hoynes pointed to the two obvious candidates. “It’s either going to be Gavin Williams or a Parker Messick, I would think, in game one.
Gavin’s a righty, Messick’s a lefty, but who knows. I think that’s probably the only thing holding this back.
I’m sure the decision has already been made.”
The handedness piece matters, at least on paper. Messick gives Cleveland a left-handed look against a lineup that could be loaded with right-handed hitters, while Williams brings a power right arm that could fit differently depending on which club survives. But Hoynes also floated a clue that may be even more revealing than the matchup itself.
“There’s a reason they had him go three innings in Sunday’s season finale in Kansas City,” Hoynes said. “Even though it didn’t make any difference, they didn’t want him to go, 12 days without pitching. So maybe that’s a tip-off, that Parker will start game one.”
That kind of planning is no accident. A starter sitting too long can lose some sharpness, especially with secondary pitches, and that’s the last thing a team wants before a postseason outing.
Vogt has also praised Messick for competing even when he doesn’t have his best stuff, which only makes the decision more interesting if the rookie lefty is the one lined up for the opener.
The challenge for Cleveland doesn’t stop with the first inning, though. The bye week means the Guardians have to stay ready without the benefit of real games, and that’s never as simple as it sounds.
They’re using simulated at-bats and workouts at Progressive Field, but there’s no perfect replacement for actual competition. Hitters have to stay sharp without live pitching, and relievers have to keep their arms and command in order without the pressure of high-leverage innings.
The schedule also gives Vogt some flexibility once the series starts. With multiple off days in the ALDS, starters could stay on regular rest, and a pitcher could even be used out of the bullpen in a big spot if the situation calls for it.
Cleveland earned the break. Now Vogt has to make sure the time off doesn’t dull the edge.
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For Cleveland, the wrinkle is less about who starts on the mound than how Chicago chooses to deploy Davis Martin. White Sox manager Will Venable is weighing whether to use him as a conventional starter or ahead of an opener, and that decision could ripple through the Guardians Game 1 planning, especially when it comes to lineup construction and platoon choices. [Read more 🡒]
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The October wrinkle is what makes Lowes role worth watching now. He has driven in 27 runs and offered the kind of dependable presence a playoff team can lean on, yet the lower batting average and wRC+ leave the first-base picture a little more complicated than it looked when he first arrived. As the postseason gets closer, the Guardians still have to decide how much they want that steadiness to define the position if a bigger offensive spark becomes available. [Read more 🡒]
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Chicago arrives with real momentum after sweeping the Astros in the Wild Card Series, a run that included Chase Meidroths three-run homer in a decisive moment. For Cleveland, that makes the timing of this draw a little less than ideal, because the White Sox are not just a division foe the Guardians know well - theyre a club that has just shown it can carry that confidence deep into October. [Read more 🡒]