The Cleveland Guardians have spent the last two seasons proving they know how to close, and that track record is exactly why there’s real confidence around this team again. But the roster is different now, the margin is thin, and baseball has a habit of turning comfortable stretches into panic in a hurry.
That’s the concern Bleacher Report analyst Kerry Miller raised when he laid out a nightmare finish for Cleveland.
“Sputter to the finish line; miss the postseason,” Miller wrote. “Climbing to the No. 2 seed is still well within the realm of possibility, too.
Then again, if the Guardians continue to play sub-.500 baseball, missing the cut altogether is also very much on the table. And if they lose the remaining series to the A’s and Royals in the process of blowing it, that would be especially embarrassing.”
The Guardians have given themselves a strong opening to avoid that kind of collapse. They enter a pivotal three-game series against the Chicago White Sox, starting Monday at Progressive Field, just one-half game back of first place in the AL Central. Over the last couple of weeks, Cleveland has looked like the steadier team and carries the momentum into this matchup.
Still, the standings leave plenty of room for stress. Cleveland is only two games over .500 with 12 games left, which is not exactly the profile of a club that feels safe. And yet a third straight division title would put the Guardians in position to land something even bigger than that: an unexpected run at the No. 2 seed in the American League.
Since Sept. 3, when Cleveland was at .500 and three games behind Chicago in the loss column, the Guardians have gone 6-4, including Sunday’s win over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox, meanwhile, have dropped six of their last nine, which has allowed Cleveland to claw back into the race and made this week’s series the one that could swing the division.
After that, both teams have schedules that look manageable. Each will visit the Kansas City Royals, who have the fifth-worst record in the majors. Cleveland also has games left against the third-worst Athletics, while Chicago finishes the season against the overall-worst Colorado Rockies.
One stretch may end up deciding everything for the Guardians: their three-game series at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox next Tuesday through Thursday. The wild card picture could matter there, too, since Boston might already have the second wild card locked up and have little left to chase.
Cleveland may not need any help to get back to October, but at this stage of the season, every edge matters.
In Other News...
Stephen Vogt Is Giving Guardians Fans One Less Thing To Worry About
In a season that has asked plenty of Cleveland, Stephen Vogt has quietly become one less source of anxiety. Bleacher Report recently placed the Guardians manager in the highest tier of job security among MLB skippers, a reflection of how the organization views the job he has done navigating the roster and steering the pitching staff through the usual grind.
The Guardians have stayed in the mix in the postseason race, and that matters when you start talking about how much patience a front office is likely to show. Vogt has handled the challenge well enough that industry observers see his spot as secure for the foreseeable future, which lets the focus stay on the pennant chase instead of the dugout. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Face One Offseason Rotation Decision Fans Will Debate
The Guardians have spent much of the season benefiting from a rotation that has stayed largely intact, with young arms like Parker Messick, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee giving the club a clear foundation to build on. It is the kind of homegrown pitching group Cleveland has long preferred, and it has made the offseason conversation feel a little different than in years past, when the staff often looked like the area most likely to be shuffled.
Still, one familiar name hovers over the discussion: Shane Bieber, who is now a free agent after battling injuries and making only limited starts with the Blue Jays. A reunion in Cleveland is considered a longshot, which leaves the Guardians more likely to move ahead with the group they already trust while sorting out the uncertain status of Foster Griffin. For a team that leans heavily on pitching stability, it is exactly the sort of decision fans will debate all winter. [Read more 🡒]
Tanner Bibee Is Creating An October Decision Guardians Fans Didn't Expect
The Guardians went into the trade deadline with an eye on pitching depth, and the addition of Foster Griffin gave them seven healthy options to sort through as October approaches. That kind of surplus usually sounds like a good problem, but it also has a way of forcing hard choices, especially when one of the familiar names in the mix is Tanner Bibee. He was once viewed as a possible ace, the sort of arm a team could build around in a short series, and that still matters when the games get tighter and every inning starts to carry more weight.
Bibees recent regression has complicated the picture, with a higher ERA and more home runs allowed than the club would have hoped for from a frontline starter. Even so, his experience and ability to work deep into games make him hard to leave out of the conversation, and likely hard to leave out of the rotation entirely. For a Guardians team trying to line up its best October plan, the question is no longer whether Bibee belongs in the mix. It is where he fits, and how much trust the team is willing to place in him when the season turns. [Read more 🡒]