Guardians Face A Huge ALCS Test Against Griffin Jax At Home

Can the Cleveland Guardians exploit Griffin Jax's transition to a starting pitcher and gain the upper hand in Game 3 of the ALCS?

The Guardians are getting a pitcher with two different identities in ALCS Game 3.

Griffin Jax spent the first part of his career carving up hitters in relief, the kind of arm managers trusted when every pitch felt bigger than the last. This season, Tampa Bay stretched him out into a starter, and now the 31-year-old right-hander is taking the ball in one of the biggest spots of his career at Progressive Field with the American League Championship Series tied 1-1.

That shift showed up all over his 2026 line. Jax finished 8-10 with a 3.53 ERA, struck out 116 batters in 112⅓ innings and made 23 starts. Before that, he had spent the previous two seasons almost entirely out of the bullpen, appearing in 72 games and 73 games, respectively.

He was already back in a familiar pressure lane in the AL Division Series against the Yankees. In Game 3, Jax worked two innings in relief in his first postseason outing since 2023. He gave up one earned run on one hit and one walk while striking out four.

What makes him tricky is that he doesn’t live on pure heat. Jax’s most-used pitch in 2026 was a sweeper that sits around 87.5 mph, and he threw it 25.1% of the time.

His next two pitches were nearly equal parts of his mix: a 95.3 mph sinker at 22.7% and a 90.8 mph changeup at 22.6%. He also brought in a 95.9 mph four-seam fastball, a curveball and a cutter, giving him multiple ways to disrupt timing and eye level without leaning on one overpowering pitch.

For Cleveland, the sweeper is the first problem to solve. It’s the pitch Jax goes to most often, and hitters have to decide whether it’s staying in the zone or darting away.

In 2026, opponents hit .222 against it, but the pitch still produced a .417 slugging percentage. It also generated whiffs on 35.7% of swings.

That means it can finish at bats - and it can also get punished if he misses where he wants it.

The bigger trap is overcorrecting. A lineup that’s too eager to lay off the breaking ball can wind up sitting back on everything else.

Opposing hitters slugged .484 against Jax’s four-seam fastball and .407 against his sinker in 2026, while the changeup held them to a .278 slugging percentage and the curveball to .200, according to Baseball Savant. The pitch mix and usage matter, but the lesson is clear: Cleveland has to recognize the sweeper without getting frozen by it.

That kind of discipline can also force Jax to prove how willing he is to come into the zone with his fastball or changeup.

The Guardians have another path, too: make the converted reliever work like a starter. Jax handled the jump in workload this season, but that doesn’t mean Cleveland should treat him like someone who can breeze through a lineup.

His strikeout ability and his comfort in pressure moments are real. Still, the Guardians can make the night longer.

The way to do that is simple enough. Don’t give him easy outs.

Don’t chase early. Don’t help him stack quick innings.

Longer at-bats can expose how he’s using his pitches, push the count higher and give Cleveland another look at the full mix as the game goes on.

With the series even and the next three games moving to Cleveland, the Guardians have a chance to put Jax in a difficult spot in front of their own crowd.

In Other News...

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Now the sting is not just what Cleveland gave up, but how close the Rays came to asking for something else from the system before settling on Caminero. Xzavion Curry was among the minor leaguers Tampa Bay initially sought, and the fact that Caminero has developed into a top prospect while Myers and Curry have had quieter big league careers makes the trade look even harder to defend in hindsight. [Read more 🡒]

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For Cleveland fans, the practical part is simple: the team confirmed that tickets and parking passes will still work for the new start time. The bigger picture is a postseason schedule that can still bend quickly around weather, TV and the rest of the leagues needs, even as the Guardians try to stay focused on the field rather than the clock. [Read more 🡒]

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Williams backed up that confidence with his latest outing, throwing 5.2 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in the series-clinching win over the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland now turns to a Game 3 matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays, set for 1 PM ET Thursday after a weather-related delay from the original 6 PM start, and the Guardians will be hoping their emerging starter brings the same edge both on the mound and in the clubhouse. [Read more 🡒]