The situation between Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers is becoming one of the more intriguing storylines of the offseason - and not in the way fans in Detroit were hoping for.
What started as a standard arbitration negotiation has now turned into something much more complicated. Earlier this offseason, we got a glimpse into the tension between Skubal and the Tigers' front office when reports surfaced about just how far apart the two sides were on a potential 2026 salary. That divide didn’t close - and now, with no agreement in place, the two sides are headed to an arbitration hearing.
That’s not unusual in MLB, but when it involves a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber - a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner - it raises eyebrows. And it raises even more questions about his long-term future in Detroit.
Let’s be clear: arbitration hearings are never ideal. They’re essentially courtroom-style debates where a team argues why a player shouldn't be paid what he believes he's worth.
That can strain even the healthiest of relationships. In Skubal’s case, it’s fair to wonder if the damage is already done.
And with trade rumors swirling, the Tigers’ ace might not be calling Comerica Park home for much longer.
The Tigers and Skubal are set to face off in an arbitration hearing that must take place before February 13. Until then, a trade seems unlikely - teams generally don’t want to acquire a player and immediately head into a salary dispute. But once that number is locked in, Skubal’s market could heat up quickly.
And make no mistake, there is a market.
According to a recent report, multiple league insiders believe Skubal still holds strong trade value - even with a big price tag. The Tigers submitted a figure in the neighborhood of $20 million for 2026.
Skubal’s camp countered at $32 million. That’s a wide gap, but it also underscores how elite the left-hander has become.
He’s not just one of the best pitchers in the American League - he’s on a trajectory to become one of the highest-paid arms in the game.
The Tigers, however, don’t appear willing to meet that price - at least not yet.
There’s precedent for a trade like this. Just look back to 2020, when the Red Sox and Mookie Betts couldn’t agree on a long-term deal.
Boston settled with Betts on a $27 million arbitration number, then traded him to the Dodgers weeks later. That deal worked out pretty well for L.A., who locked Betts up with a 12-year, $365 million extension.
Now, Skubal’s situation isn’t identical, but the framework is familiar. A high-profile player, represented by Scott Boras - who rarely settles for early extensions - is heading toward free agency with big money on the horizon. If Detroit isn’t ready to pay up, someone else might be.
And while nothing is imminent, fans around the league - especially in Cleveland - are watching closely. Skubal has had his way with the Guardians over the past couple seasons, and the idea that he might no longer be a divisional headache is certainly something Guardians fans would welcome.
Whether a deal happens before Opening Day or closer to the trade deadline, the writing feels like it’s on the wall. The Tigers have a Cy Young winner under team control, but if they’re not willing to commit long-term, trade talks will keep simmering.
One way or another, Skubal’s future is shaping up to be one of the defining storylines of 2026.