The ALCS opens tomorrow at 7 p.m. CT with the American League’s top two seeds meeting in a seven-game series, and the matchup starts with Tampa Bay in a familiar spot: handing the ball to Drew Rasmussen. Cleveland has not yet announced its Game 1 starter.
What makes this series so tricky to pin down is the way both teams got here. The Rays arrive with a rested pitching staff after sweeping the Yankees in three games, while the Guardians had to grind through five games against the White Sox and even mixed in some pitching chaos along the way.
Parker Messick and Gavin Williams each made two starts in that ALDS. Messick went in Games 1 and 4, though his Game 4 outing lasted just 65 pitches.
Williams appeared in relief to finish Game 4, then came back to start Game 5 yesterday and was sharp, working 5 2/3 dominant innings with 12 strikeouts. Cleveland also used a bullpen game in Game 3.
That leaves the Guardians trying to sort out at least Games 1 and 4 in the rotation. Messick could technically come back on short rest for Game 1, but a Game 2 start on full rest looks more likely.
Williams should be lined up normally for Game 3. Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo both threw fewer than ten outs in Game 3 - Griffin got eight outs and Cantillo five - and Tanner Bibee was used in Game 4 and recorded just one out.
Griffin and Cantillo are both fully rested and among the options for Cleveland’s opener.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, can roll out a top three of Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Martinez. Rasmussen was the breakout ace for the Rays this season, putting up a 2.67 ERA in 30 starts while posting a 21.2% K-BB rate and a 43.9% ground ball rate, both above average.
FanGraphs gave him 5.0 wins above replacement, which placed him just behind Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease among the American League’s best starters. Messick finished right behind him with 4.9 fWAR.
Peralta and Martinez are a notch below Rasmussen, but both give Tampa Bay real punch in Games 2 and 3. Peralta spent much of the season struggling before settling in after his trade to the Rays.
He finished with a 3.25 ERA in 55 1/3 innings for Tampa and also tossed 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball in ALDS Game 2. Martinez was a little shaky in Game 3, but his regular season was quietly excellent: 180 innings, a 3.10 ERA, and a 3.6% walk rate that was the best among qualified AL starters.
Rasmussen’s 4.8% mark was second.
The back end of the game could also be tight. Cleveland may have a slight advantage in the bullpen thanks to strong-to-dominant work from Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, though the Rays have their own late-inning answers in Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly.
Still, the series may come down to offense more than anything else. Tampa Bay was the stronger regular-season club at the plate, finishing tied with the White Sox for fifth in the majors with a 104 wRC+.
Cleveland finished below average at 97 wRC+. Junior Caminero blasted 42 home runs and is set to finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting.
Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda were both 23-25% better than average by wRC+, and Chandler Simpson hit above .300 while leading the majors with 46 stolen bases.
Cleveland’s top qualified bats were Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan, and Travis Bazzana, who posted wRC+ marks of 131, 114, and 110, respectively. José Ramírez had a down year, mostly because of a rough second half, but he woke up in the ALDS.
The Guardians actually out-hit the Rays over the first round: Ramírez, Patrick Bailey, and Jo Adell all delivered strong performances, and Cleveland’s 14.3% walk rate helped it reach base more often. Tampa Bay, by comparison, walked just 4.9% of the time and finished with a .255 OBP in its sweep of New York.
In Other News...
Guardians Face One ALCS Roster Choice That Could Shape This Series
With a seven-game battle against the Rays looming, Stephen Vogt is weighing one of those postseason roster calls that can quietly shape everything that follows. The Guardians are looking at whether to keep a deeper bench of position players or trim back toward a more traditional split between pitchers and hitters, a decision made more complicated by the grind of a long series and the need to cover every inning carefully.
Daniel Schneemanns spot is part of the conversation as the club searches for more right-handed punch, while the pitching side brings its own option if Cleveland wants another arm that can bridge multiple innings. Vogt does not have the luxury of treating this as a marginal choice, either, because the roster balance can affect late-game matchups, pinch-hit flexibility and how aggressively the Guardians can manage their bullpen over the next week. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Made One ALCS Roster Choice Fans Will Be Watching
With the American League Championship Series now set against the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland adjusted its roster in a way that says plenty about how it sees this matchup unfolding. The Guardians brought in pitcher Slade Cecconi and left utilityman Daniel Schneeman off the ALCS group, a move that tilts the bench a little more toward arms as the series shifts into a deeper October grind.
Cecconi spent most of the season in the rotation, making 21 starts, but has recently been working in a relief role and figures to give Cleveland another option out of the bullpen if this turns into a longer battle. Schneeman had already been absent from the ALDS games, and his omission here underscores how much roster flexibility matters once the games become compressed and every spot has to serve a very specific purpose. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Are Handing Game 1 To An Unexpected Arm
The Guardians are turning to an unexpected arm as the American League Championship Series opens, with Foster Griffin lined up to take the ball after emerging from a strong relief role in the Division Series. Cleveland liked what it saw from him in that matchup, where he gave the club an important lift out of the bullpen and quickly became one of the more interesting postseason stories on the roster.
Griffin is also one of the few Cleveland pitchers who wasnt leaned on heavily in the previous series, which gives the staff a fresh option at a time when every inning matters. Hell be working on normal rest, and the decision says plenty about how the Guardians are approaching Game 1 against Tampa Bay as they try to get the tone of the series right from the start. [Read more 🡒]