The Guardians are in, but the bracket picture around them is still wobbling - and a Red Sox doubleheader at Fenway could decide a lot of it.
Cleveland locked up its third straight postseason berth with a 1-0 win over Boston last night, but the work isn’t finished. The Guardians now have a clear rooting interest in today’s twin bill between the Red Sox and Cubs: Boston needs to win at least one game.
If the Red Sox do that, Cleveland is officially locked into the bottom of the American League postseason field. From there, the Guardians would either host the ALDS as the American League Central champion and No. 2 seed or head on the road as the AL No. 6 seed to face the American League West winner.
If Boston gets swept, though, things get messy fast.
In that scenario, if the Guardians go 2-1 this week and the White Sox win out, all three teams would land at 85-77. That would put Chicago ahead of Cleveland in the American League Central while pushing the Guardians ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings. The result: Cleveland would end up as the No. 5 seed and have to go to New York to face the Yankees in the Wild Card Series.
Bryan Hoch laid out the math this way on X: “Correction -- Almost there, but not officially Yankees/Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series yet. See below:
If CWS wins out, they're 85-77. CLE could also finish 85-77 by going 3-1.
And then if BOS loses out, they're 85-77. CLE would have to win tomorrow's CLE-BOS game for that…”
That path would leave the Guardians with a higher seed, but not a friendlier one. It would mean a much tougher road through the Yankees and Rays to get to the American League Championship Series instead of coming up through the lower part of the bracket, where the White Sox, Astros and Rangers would be in the mix.
The weird part of all this is that Boston’s series with Chicago is a doubleheader because of weather. The original plan was a standard three-game set at Fenway, but a serious nor’easter forced the change. MLB is also considering moving at least one of the games to Tropicana Field, which will be empty with the Rays finishing on the road.
It’s not exactly a clean setup for Boston, and it’s not great for Chicago either. Cubs manager Craig Counsell has already made that much clear.
Still, the simplest way for Cleveland to erase all the scoreboard watching is to keep winning. The Guardians already handled the biggest piece by clinching a playoff spot; now the rest of their postseason path depends on how the final days shake out.
In Other News...
Former Guardians Arm Is Back In Limbo At The Worst Time
Xzavion Curry is back in roster limbo after the Mets designated the former Guardians right-hander for assignment to clear space for waiver claim Philip Abner. Curry had spent most of his time with New York this season working in a long-relief role, logging 21 1/3 innings in the majors while also making appearances for Triple-A Syracuse.
Now the question is whether another club sees enough to put in a claim, or whether Curry clears waivers and gets pushed toward a more complicated next step. If he goes unclaimed, he can reject a minor league assignment and become a minor league free agent in the offseason, leaving his immediate future hanging at a time when every bullpen spot matters. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Reached October On A Fenway Swing Fans Wont Believe
Angel Martinez gave Cleveland the jolt it needed at Fenway, sending a 319-foot homer into the night and lifting the Guardians to a 1-0 win over the Red Sox. The victory punched their ticket to the postseason and kept them one game ahead in the AL Central, with the division still within reach as the final stretch tightened.
For a club that has leaned on run prevention all season, the formula held up again in Boston. Clevelands pitching staff blanked the Red Sox from start to finish, and the kind of slim-margin win that can define October left the Guardians with both a playoff berth secured and a division race still very much alive. [Read more 🡒]
Guardians Face A Risky Division Gamble With Their Rotation
With a playoff berth already secured, the Guardians are now balancing one more goal that still matters a great deal: the AL Central title. Chicago is right there with them, and the last few days of the schedule could decide the division, which is why the conversation has shifted from just getting in to how far Cleveland should push to win the bracket it wants. The next step comes against the Royals, while the White Sox line up against the Rockies, setting up a finish that could come down to the final day.
That is where the rotation debate gets interesting. Analyst Ken Carman has floated the idea of turning to Parker Messick in the final game if Cleveland needs a win to take the division, even though doing so could limit how available he is for the Wild Card Round. It is the kind of late-season gamble contenders face when the standings are tight, with one eye on the immediate prize and the other on what comes next if the division chase does not break their way. [Read more 🡒]